Britain and America

Relaunching soon but we don't have a name

It's taken a lot longer than planned but the successor to BritainAndAmerica.com will launch towards the end of August - just ahead of the Democrat Convention.

The new website will have two very related aims:

• To explore the nature of anti-Americanism and how America and America's friends might combat it;
• To advocate American engagement in the world - warning that 'a world without America' would be poorer, more dangerous and less just.

The website will be updated on a daily basis from its launch but at its heart will be a set of fifty briefings that will help students, journalists and all interested people explore America's place in the world.  Briefings will examine:

• The United Nations as an alternative to US leadership;
• The strengths and weaknesses of popular strategies to tackle anti-Americanism;
• The role of global media organisations in interpreting American power;
• The contribution of US faith communities to the development of American foreign policy;
• The contribution of American R&D expenditure to global welfare.

We have lots of special features planned for the website's first month and are very excited about possibilities.  We have one big problem, however.  We are struggling to find a good name for the project.  Now that you know the broad outline of the project we would greatly appreciate any good ideas in the thread below...

This site has closed for a period

It will restart in a couple of months in a very different format.  If you would like to be kept informed about the restart please join our Facebook group.

In the meantime we recommend Americano as the best UK-based blog for reporting all things American.  Tim Montgomerie's posts at CentreRight.com also focus on US issues.

Thanks for visiting BritainAndAmerica.com over the last eighteen months.  We sincerely hope that you will enjoy our new site when it launches.

George W Bush's BBC interview

Earlier today George W Bush sat down with BBC America's Matt Frei and recorded an interview - ahead of his Africa tour.

The full transcript is here.

We didn't learn a great deal but it is good to see the White House acknowledging the importance of the BBC and in a two-way with BBCtv's Kirsty Wark, Matt Frei talked about the time he spent with the President after the formal interview.  Frei reported that President Bush said that he hoped to conclude a settlement of the Palestinian question during his period of office and that it would be the most important thing that he hoped to achieve.

Quickly retreating from Iraq could destroy the presidencies of Clinton or Obama

A must-read column from David Brooks in today's New York Times:

"Both Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have seductively hinted that they would withdraw almost all U.S. troops within 12 to 16 months. But if either of them actually did that, he or she would instantly make Iraq the consuming partisan fight of their presidency.

There would be private but powerful opposition from Arab leaders, who would fear a return to 2006 chaos. There would be irate opposition from important sections of the military, who would feel that the U.S. was squandering the gains of the previous year. A Democratic president with few military credentials would confront outraged and highly photogenic colonels screaming betrayal.

There would be important criticism from nonpartisan military experts. In his latest report, the much-cited Anthony Cordesman describes an improving Iraqi security situation that still requires “strategic patience” and another five years to become self-sustaining.

There would be furious opposition from Republicans and many independents. They would argue that you can’t evacuate troops just as Iraqis are about to hold national elections and tensions are at their highest. They would point out that it’s insanity to end local reconstruction and Iraqi training efforts just when they are producing results. They would accuse the new administration of reverse-Rumsfeldism, of ignoring postsurge realities and of imposing an ideological solution on a complex situation.

All dreams of changing the tone in Washington would be gone. All of Obama’s unity hopes would evaporate. And if the situation did deteriorate after a quick withdrawal, as the National Intelligence Estimate warns, the bloodshed would be on the new president’s head.

Therefore, when a new Democratic administration considered all these possibilities, its members would part ways. A certain number of centrists would conclude that rapid withdrawal is a mistake. They would say that the situation had changed and would call for a strategic review. They’d recommend a long, slow conditions-based withdrawal — constant, small troop reductions, and a lot of regional diplomacy, while maintaining tens of thousands of troops in Iraq for the remainder of the term.

The left wing of the party would go into immediate uproar. They’d scream: This was a central issue of the campaign! All the troops must get out now!

The president would have to make a terrible decision."

Brooks goes on to discuss the nightmare tensions that might erupt between Democrats on federal spending.  Read it all here.

Could Colin Powell back Barack Obama?

This video suggests that he might.  Although a registered Republican and George W Bush's first Secretary of State, General Powell speaks highly of the Illinois Senator's personal qualities.  Powell also emphasises the need to restore America's standing in the world - a key Democrat theme.

McCain tries to woo former Romneyites

Samuel Coates, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, reviews John McCain's speech following Mitt Romney's decision to stand aside.

John McCain was understandably in a good mood when he strode (at such a pace that I could only get a blurred photo!) through the entrance to the Omni Shoreham hotel this afternoon. His nomination as the Republican Presidential candidate is now assured.

His speech largely consisted of lots of references to the fact that some in the hall would have disagreed with him on things in the past, and of spelling out his "mainstream conservative record". Highlights:

• Booed when apologising for his conspicuous absence at last year's CPAC, then self-deprecatingly joked about being too busy successfully trying to rid himself of early frontrunner status.
• He paid a brief tribute to Governor Romney, although there was some laughing when he said he'd welcome him on board his campaign. Also congratulated the "great and fine man" Mike Huckabee for the success of his continuing campaign.
• Spoke of the responsiblity to unite the party, that he was acutely aware that he couldn't win without the support of the footsoldiers and that in future disagreements he would seek the counsel of fellow conservatives.
• Paid respect to the principled opposition to the stances he has taken on some issues and thanked the audience for the opportunity to make his case: "I wouldn't pretend otherwise, and you wouldn't let me forget."
• Quoted Edmund Burke: "Whenever a separation is made between liberty and justice, neither, in my opinion, is safe". He quoted Burke again towards the end when talking about his "deep, unwavering love of liberty" resulting in part from his time in captivity: "The true danger is when liberty is nibbled away, for expedience, and by parts".
• In his mandatory CPAC reference to Ronald Reagan, McCain spoke of going to CPAC for the first time on the invitation of Reagan, and how he and his Shining City on a Hill speech in particular formed his early views as a young Naval officer: "I'm as proud today of that association as I was then."
• He made a few references to the divine, and also to his pro-life beliefs: "liberty is a right conferred by the creator not governments", "I believe the pursuit of happiness is God-given to all who are born... and unborn."
• Good cheer for his passage on "the long overdue counter-insurgency that spared the tragedy of losing the war". Said that no other candidate appreciated how awful war was, but that he would not let America suffer the greater losses that would result from failure and that he believed "staying on the offence" would "keep this country safe, proud, prosperous and free."
  
• A fifteen second grinning pause was required after uttering the phrase: "illegal immigration", although his emphasis on "securing our borders first" won strong applause.
• Promised a "challenging, spirited contest" in which "standing by conservative convictions" would appeal to independents and Reagan Democrats.
• Promised to make Bush's tax cuts permanent, to cut corporation tax from 35% to 25%, and to "not let the Democrat-controlled Congress to increase taxes and choke economic growth".
  

Romney pulls out for the sake of the war on terror

Samuel Coates, at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, reports on Mitt Romney's resignation speech.

Talk show host Laura Ingraham gave Romney a strong introduction, saying that he was a security conservative, a social conservative and an economic conservative and that she was proud to be the only introducer with the job of introducing the conservative candidate. She also spoke of how Reagan battled on to the convention when people were saying he should stand down for the good of the party (curiously, so did Mitt!). I wonder if she was told?

Romney walked on to the stage to mass placard waving and cheering. He spoke of the "unique" sacrifice America had made in the cause of liberty in the 21st century - only taking enough land after its victories to bury its dead - and that if it didn't change course it could be the new France (crowd boos). There were several nods to Christians, he said the majority of Americans believed in God or at least in "a purpose-driven life" (the title of a bestselling Christian book), and criticised intolerance of such faith.

He spoke in particularly strong terms about:

• fighting the "culture-killing poison of dependency"
• how "depressing the private sector depresses the well-being of all"
• the danger of China and India overtaking America in the same way America did the UK and France
• being held hostage by the oil needed from "the likes of Putin, Chavez and Ahmadinejad"
• getting the dividend bit of Bill Clinton's "peace dividend", but not the peace bit

He said he disagreed with John McCain on a lot of things but that he was absolutely right on doing whatever it takes in Iraq and the fight against radical, violent Islam.  I half-expected a slight jibe to follow this concession, but it didn't come. He criticised Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for wanting retreat and defeat. Then, to a gasping crowd that had been giving him a rapturous reception, he said that continuing to stand made it easier for one of those two to win. That because he loved America and because he "cannot allow the next President to retreat in the face of evil extremism", he felt he must stand aside. If his candidacy was only about him, he went on, he would have continued.

In short, he did an Obi Wan Kenobi, and in doing so endeared himself to those who, like me, saw him as little more than a politician's politician. It was a great speech. If a British Conservative had said the things he said about the blend of issues that he focused on, I'd be right behind them.

He'll have his eyes on 2012 now. He's set himself up well.

McCain says British withdrawal from Iraq was not a good idea

There's lots of excitement in parts of the UK blogosphere (eg here and here) about John McCain cancelling a meeting with Gordon Brown.  McCain was due to be in Europe this weekend for the Munich security conference.  He was to have a meeting with Gordon Brown en route but, with his Republican rivals still campaigning, McCain decided that he would need to stay on US soil.  Not a great snub to the British Prime Minister but a warning to all spin doctors that it's not wise to pre-brief meetings until you are really sure that they are going to happen.

A much more significant story gets much less attention from the blogs but is undoubtedly more important.  The FT reports Senator McCain's disappointment at the UK's withdrawal from Basra:

"The Arizona senator, who has been a strong supporter of the surge, echoed the misgivings of the US military about the British move, telling reporters he “did not think it was a good idea”... “I understand the British domestic situation and I very much appreciate the service and sacrifice the British military made in Iraq and are making in Afghanistan ... Obviously we’d have liked to see them stay longer but the enormous contribution they made in Iraq and Afghanistan I have to just be grateful for.”"

Up until now newspapers have reported private White House and military disappointment at the British withdrawal but this is the first time that a very senior American politician has spoken publicly.

All you need to know: Reflections on Super Duper Tuesday

DEMOCRAT RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Hillary Clinton did better than her team had begun to fear.  Some of the polls giving, for example, Barack Obama's big leads in California were way out wrong.  Senator Clinton's victory in California was a particular relief and her win in Massachusetts a delicious victory over Kennedy and Kerry - who couldn't even deliver their home state to Obama.  There's a great quote in the Boston Globe on why Clinton prevailed in Ma: "The workhorses beat the show horses. Clinton won.  In fact, that's probably an accurate description of the national Clinton/Obama battle, too."

The overall delegates count is close, however with Clinton leading Obama by just 900 to 824.  Obama claims he won more delegates last night.  Only a fool would predict who will eventually win this race.  Rasmussen markets has Obama with a 49% chance of winning his party's nomination and Hillary Clinton a 51% chance.  (The same source gives McCain a 93% chance of securing the GOP nod).

HOW LONG WILL THE DEMOCRAT RACE GO ON FOR?

All the way to the Convention is a real possibility.  Who will that favour?  It will favour the Democrats if they win 75% of media coverage from now until then but the GOP could start benefiting if it starts getting ugly again between the two Senators.  At the moment, says Washington Wire, the two parties are sharing media attention: "Overall Democrats were the focus of 46% of the election stories last week, while Republicans were close behind at 42%."

OBAMA DOES HAVE GEOGRAPHIC REACH

Last night's wins for Obama in GOP states like Kansas, Idaho, Utah and North Dakota, in the bellwether state of Missouri and last week's South Carolina primary underline his credentials as a candidate able to compete across the whole nation.

"SUICIDE VOTERS" ENTERS THE POLITICAL LEXICON

John Derbyshire notes its arrival: "I have just logged (here) a third occurrence, in about 24 hours, of the phrase "suicide voters" — i.e. people who will vote Democrat in November to prevent a McCain presidency.  It's not an original idea, of course, but I don't recall it from previous campaigns. It's not very tasteful, either; but in the age of South Park Conservatism, that probably won't stop its spread, if it's going to spread."

LAST NIGHT'S VICTORY SPEECH FROM JOHN McCAIN WASN'T TO THE WHOLE NATION BUT TO CONSERVATIVE AMERICANS

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government,” he said. “I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively…I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary… I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility…”  Byron York at National Review has more.

HUCKABEE MAY BE HURTING McCAIN MORE THAN ROMNEY?

Some things get repeated often enough that they become conventional wisdom.  That doesn't mean that they're true.  Exit polling data casts doubt on the now popular theory that Huckabee is hurting Romney.  Here's Gallup Guru's view: "McCain wins over Romney as the second choice of Huckabee voters by more than a 2 to 1 margin, 64% to 28%.  Indeed, McCain beats Romney 42% to 24% with Huckabee in the race (Huckabee gets 18% of the vote, Ron Paul gets 5%, and Alan Keyes gets 2%).  With a narrowed-down ballot focused just on McCain and Romney (forcing Huckabee voters to choose between the two front-runners), McCain wins 53% to 30% -- a slightly expanded margin."  Gallup Guru is a great site btw.

AND FINALLY...

Toby Harnden reports that Barack Obama's daughters aren't that keen on a move to Washington DC but the Illinois Senator has promised to buy them a dog if his presidential bid is successful.

All you need to know: Super Duper Tuesday

The polling shows McCain and Obama surging.  McCain now enjoys an average 18.4% lead over Mitt Romney.  Given that the Republican primaries are winner-takes-all in terms of delegates, Senator McCain should wrap things up tonight.  The Democrat race is much more nail-biting  Hillary Clinton's large leads in national polls have evaporated to no more than a couple of digits.  Even if she wins states she will have to share delegates with Barack Obama.  He may win California and bellwether Missouri.  Victories in both of those two states will be very bad news for Hillary's White House bid.  If Obama wins New Jersey, too - in Clinton's backyard - he'll be the overwhelming favourite to secure the nomination.  The next few primaries favour Obama and so he might start to enjoy real momentum.

Clinton has been written off before, however.  Her voters tend to be more reliable and we've yet to see if Team Obama's inspirational videos (like this one) are producing frothy or real support.

OPINION POLLSTERS ARE NOT HAVING AN EASY TIME

UK opinion polling was humuliated by the 1992 General Election result.  All the pollsters got the result badly wrong.  This year US pollsters have struggled to keep up with the ebbs and flows of the race.  They were spectacularly wrong in New Hampshire when Mrs Clinton pulled off a surprise win.   Some pollsters will have some explaining to do after tonight, too.  Zogby, for example, has Obama ahead in its final California poll by 49% to 36%.  Survey USA has Clinton ahead by 52% to 42% in the same state (source).  Both can't be right!

BARACK OBAMA IS A LIBERAL

Cal Thomas urges Republicans to wake up to the fact that Barack Obama is a very left-wing candidate - favouring higher taxation and endorsed by the most left-liberal powerbrokers in the Democratic party - including Ted Kennedy and MoveOn.org.  As James Forsyth has noted, Barack Obama's reassuring rhetoric is effectively disguising the fact that he is the most liberal of America's one hundred senators and that's not liberal in the classical understanding of the term.  He's a big state interventionist, opposed to the war on terror.

McCAIN'S PROBLEMS WITH CONSERVATIVES ARE GROWING

We already know that Ann Coulter has promised to campaign for Hillary Clinton rather than John McCain.  She (ridiculously) asserted that Mrs Clinton is more hawkish that McCain.  Talk show host Rush Limbaugh has also junked McCain:

"If I believe the country will suffer with either Hillary, Obama or McCain, I would just as soon the Democrats take the hit . . . rather than a Republican causing the debacle," he said. "And I would prefer not to have conservative Republicans in the Congress paralyzed by having to support, out of party loyalty, a Republican president who is not conservative."

Another influential figure - James Dobson - has now said that he won't back the maverick Republican Senator.  James Dobson, a leader of American evangelicals said the following:

"I am deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, voted for embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings, opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, has little regard for freedom of speech, organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters in judicial hearings, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language."

Fred Barnes at The Weekly Standard urges conservatives to "grow up" and lists some of the reasons why Senator McCain is preferable to any Democrat.  At the same time he urges John McCain to do more to reach out to conservatives - beginning this week with his address to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.  BritainAndAmerica's Samuel Coates will be at the speech and will report back on these pages.

UK Tories still prefer Republicans to Democrats by four-to-one

Last June ConservativeHome.com found that Rudy Giuliani was the overwhelming favourite of UK Tories to be America's next President.  The race has changed a lot since then and here are the preferences today.  Over 1,600 Conservative members took part in the survey.  A number of leading UK Tories have outed themselves as Obamacons.  This poll suggests that rank-and-file members remain decisively Republican-friendly.
Related link: Tories debate whether they are closer to the Democrats or Republicans

The new conservatives: David Cameron and John McCain

Not so long ago Britain's David Cameron was something of an exception in global conservatism but that's changing fast.  Two more traditional conservatives - John Howard and George W Bush - have either left the stage or are about to depart.  In Australia John Howard has been replaced by a more centrist leader, Brendan Nelson.  If Super Tuesday votes as the polls predict, Senator John McCain will become the Republican Party's nominee and the de facto leader of America's conservatives.

Here is a summary of how Cameron and McCain are taking conservatism in new directions (and where they differ).

THE NEW CONSERVATISM OF CAMERON AND McCAIN

Greener: Both are of one mind on global warming, supporting government action to force reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.  Both see the European Union taking a lead on the issue.  John McCain has said that “Americans should welcome the rise of a strong, confident European Union."  He continued: "The future of the transatlantic relationship lies in confronting the challenges of the twenty-first century worldwide: developing a common energy policy, creating a transatlantic common market tying our economies more closely together, and institutionalizing our cooperation on issues such as climate change, foreign assistance, and democracy promotion.”

More civil libertarian: Both McCain and Cameron have been very critical of Guantanamo Bay.  Both have more sympathy for protecting civil liberties than George W Bush or Michael Howard.  They have both criticised aggressive interrogation techniques, including waterboarding.

Less impressed with tax relief: Both emphasise fiscal conservatism over supply-side tax relief.  John McCain twice voted against President Bush's tax cuts and David Cameron has pledged to limit promises of tax cuts to only those that can be fully funded by commensurate tax increases or by spending reductions.  Recently, however, John McCain has vowed to extend Bush's tax cuts and has demanded a tough approach to public spending.  UK Tories are pledged to match Labour on spending.

More welcoming of immigrants: Both men have antagonised elements within their parties who have wanted very hardline positions on immigration.  John McCain almost lost any chance of the Republican nomination when he sided with George W Bush on immigration reform and a form of amnesty for illegal immigrants.  David Cameron has substantially softened Tory rhetoric on immigration and towards asylum seekers, in particular.

Pragmatic on controversial medical research: Both men support embryonic stem cell research.

More gay-friendly:  David Cameron has moved the Conservative Party decisively in favour of gay rights issues and favours tax relief for same-sex couples who enter civil partnerships.  John McCain's position is less clear although he has described attempts to secure a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage as "un-Republican".  That opposition stems more from a respect for state rights than social conservatism, however.  He is thought to be sympathetic to civil partnerships.

Zero tolerance of ethical lapses: Both men take a low tolerance approach to ethical indiscretions by politicians.

Peter Cuthbertson: What the religious right has got right

Peter Cuthbertson challenges the British media's notion that the Republican's Christian base is putting off voters.

In the New York Times, former Bush speechwriter David Frum last month played sock puppet in turn to economic conservatives, social conservatives and foreign policy conservatives, giving the perspective of each on the disappointments of the Bush Administration. Of course, the reality isn’t nearly as simple as dividing them into three discrete categories - most people on the right will sympathise with all three. But it is a piece worth reading particularly for the second perspective, an argument many British observers will never have heard.

British newspapers which aren't vehemently hostile to Republicans still tend to report on the party from one of the other two points of view. The Economist is perhaps the worst offender. Time and again it has mixed accurate accounts of how GOP support has fallen as events in Iraq turned sour with its own complaints about an overly influential religious right and about excessive government spending. Economist articles invariably conclude that when it comes to domestic policy, pork barrel spending and social conservatism are hurting the Republicans in the polls, and so they need to take a step back so that cuts in federal spending can be the priority. The casual reader, not noticing where the opinion poll data stops and the Economist's own axe-grinding begins, would come away believing this unargued position.

If Bush had in fact inflicted significant amounts of unpopular government spending on Americans, it would be a problem suspiciously easy for conservatives to solve - simply cut the spending, as they are wont to do anyway, and the electoral benefits will flow. But this is not the case. The Economist complains all the time about pork barrel spending (politicians earmarking spending for their own parts of the country) and Medicare Part D (free prescription drugs for the elderly) under President Bush. But informed fiscal conservatives should know that pork is a tiny proportion of overall spending. On the other hand, the prescription drugs plan was anything but cheap. But it was also massively popular, with opposition to it usually in the single figures. As Al Gore had similar proposals, it is difficult to see how Bush could possibly have won the 2000 election without the plan. In other words, the actual meat of the increased spending is often exactly what pulled Bush through - not what hurts the GOP in elections.

Hillary Clinton is still snubbing UK media

This site has regularly noted the growing impact of the UK media on American politics.  Millions of Americans read British news websites every month.  Left-leaning Americans are particularly keen on the BBC and Guardian America - the two UK media outfits with the biggest levels of penetration into the US domestic market (and with ambitions for deeper penetration).  Gateway sites like Drudge, The Huffington Post and RealClearPolitics also help to ensure that articles written for UK markets are read widely in the States.  Why then does Hillary Clinton keep snubbing British reporters?  Hillary Clinton barred foreign journalists from her Iowa campaign party and she won't even talk to The Telegraph now.  The Telegraph's Toby Harnden writes:

"In the hubbub of the spin room after last night’s Democratic debate in Hollywood’s Kodak Theatre, I introduced myself to Mandy Grunwald, Hillary Clinton’s media strategist, and prepared to ask a question. “Hi – you’re going to violate my I-only-speak-to-American-journalists…”, she said as I shook her hand... Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy platform states that “cooperative relationships have to be deepened and strengthened” across the globe while our “increasingly interconnected world demands an interconnected strategy”. I guess that doesn’t include the media."

So Hillary gets written down and Obama gets articles from Toby Harnden like this: "I'll see the world through your eyes".  BritainAndAmerica knows of one of the Guardian group's most senior commentators who cannot even get Team Clinton to return his phone calls.  If the election gets very tight Mrs Clinton may regret putting the Smallville Gazette ahead of the BBC.

Does Obama have enough time to beat Clinton?

OBAMA IS GAINING ON CLINTON...

A few months ago it looked like Hillary Clinton had the Democratic race sown up.  All of the uncertainty was on the GOP side.  Times have changed.  McCain is now the overwhelming favourite for the GOP nomination - leading in all five recent Super Duper Tuesday polls - and Obama is gaining on Mrs Clinton.  The extent of Obama's momentum is discussed by Dick Morris in a special post for Rasmussen polling.  Most notable is a reduction in Clinton's California advantage to just 3% from 20% a few weeks ago.   The overall national lead for the former First Lady in the RCP moving average is 8.5%; although the most recent poll - for Gallup - put Obama just 4% behind.

...AND HE HAS THE MONEY TO DRAW CLOSER

Obama has the money to contest every Super Tuesday state.  He raised $1m every day in January and is planning a $10m spending campaign over the next few days.

Ads cannot compensate for an inadequate campaign, however.  Romney spent more money (much of it his own) than all of the other GOP candidates combined.

One of the other big differences between the GOP and Democrat contests is that the GOP is running a number of winner-takes-all votes.  Second-placed Democrats, notes The Economist, still get delegates in key states which reduces the chance of a Super Tuesday wipeout.

THE IRAQ FACTOR

John O'Sullivan worries that Iraq - although better - will still hurt the Republicans:

"Whether we like it or not, Democrats are closer to the majority view on Iraq. The success of the surge has reduced the salience of Iraq as an issue damaging the GOP but that has not made it an issue that wins votes for the GOP. So it did no damage for Hillary and Obama to discuss it endlessly and their disagreement—who is most reliably determined to leave — will not anger their supporters or most uncommitted voters."

BEST JOKE OF THE DAY

From Hillary Clinton during the Democrats' debate: "It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush."  Okay; it wasn't that funny.

All you need to know: 31st January 2008

GIULIANI AND SCHWARZENEGGER ENDORSE McCAIN

Two big endorsements for the Republican frontrunner.  More on the Terminator's endorsement.  Watch Giuliani's endorsement.

CHOOSING BETWEEN McCAIN AND ROMNEY

David Frum was a Giuliani supporter.  He is now trying to choose between Romney and McCain.  He made the short case for Romney to himself yesterday.  He now does the same re McCain: "The guy is brave. A hero in war and captivity, he has demonstrated the courage of his convictions in peacetime as well.  On Iraq, he was right when Donald Rumsfeld and President Bush were wrong. If the war ends well, it will be John McCain as much as General Petraeus who will deserve the credit.  He has devoted his political career to readying himself for the job of commander in chief. His judgments on war and peace have been vindicated. No American understands better the sacrifices that are asked of fighting soldiers; no American has a better right to ask in his turn for the devotion that he offered in his time.  Of all the remaining candidates, only John McCain is running as a war leader. And a war leader is what is most sorely needed by a nation at war."

"GRACELESS" McCAIN BEHAVING BADLY

Why isn't McCain behaving like a generous frontrunner?  That's the question posed by Ross Douthat who records McCain's barbs at Romney's expense.  The video below records McCain's pretty unnecessary "layoff" jibe at Romney:

Romney was no angel, of course.  He played on conservatives' doubts about McCain: "If you get endorsed by the New York Times, you're probably not a conservative."

Rich Lowry notes how McCain has won the nomination with only limited support from conservatives:

"Has this ever happened before? This is kind of amazing. I'm looking at CNN exit polls at the numbers for self-identified Republicans. McCain lost self-identified Republicans by a point in New Hampshire (oddly, he won registered Republicans); he lost self-identified Republicans by 14 points in Michigan; and he tied among self-identified Republicans in South Carolina and Florida. In other words, McCain is close to the presumptive nominee GOP nominee without having won self-identified Republican voters anywhere. What an extraordinary—and utterly unlikely—path to the nomination. Presumably, with his front-runner status enhanced, McCain will now begin to win self-identified Republicans, but he has pulled the political equivalent of an inside-straight to get here."

James Forsyth wonders if John McCain will Cameroonise the GOP.

WHO WILL JOHN EDWARDS BACK?

Barack Obama has been winning all of the big Democratic endorsements recently.  John Kerry.  Ted Kennedy.  Will he get the nod from John Edwards?  Toby Harnden speculates and concludes that Obama will benefit from having him out of the race even if he doesn't win his immediate backing.

EVALUATING THE OPINION POLLS

The Economist carries a great little table comparing opinion poll predictions and the actual votes for the Democrat candidates.

USA TODAY LISTS WHICH CELEBRITIES ARE BACKING WHICH DEMOCRATS

"Ron Howard, Quincy Jones, Ted Danson and wife Mary Steenburgen, America Ferrera, Amber Tamblyn and sport legends Magic Johnson and Billie Jean King have stumped for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama's celebrity campaigners include Scarlett Johansson, Chris Tucker, Kerry Washington and singer Usher.  Before bowing out of the race Wednesday, John Edwards had Susan Sarandon, Tim Robbins, James Denton and others stumping for him, and singers Jackson Browne, Bonnie Raitt and John Mellencamp performing." (link)