Who needs policies when you are so likeable? Obama fever continues to grow...

Good news for Senator Barack Obama in an overnight poll for the Wall Street Journal.  He is now only 5% behind Democrat frontrunner Hillary Clinton (trailing her 36% to 31%) after being 12% behind last month.  John '$400 haircut' Edwards is third on 20%.

Earlier this month we also learnt that the Illinois Senator had raised almost as much money as the former First Lady.  Hillary Clinton's campaign raised $26m to Obama's $25m.  Fundraising power had expected to be the New York Senator's trump asset.

Senator Obama is also winning the IT race according to TechPresident.com.  He has more than three times as many MySpace friends as Clinton, for example, and is many times further ahead on YouTube views. 

All Democrat candidates are far ahead of their Republican rivals in use of the internet according to TechPresident.  MySpace and other social networks are expected to be important ways of recruiting new activists in the 2008 campaign.

The WSJ/NBC survey found that Rudy Giuliani is still the GOP frontrunner but his support is down 5% over the last month to 33%.  His support for publicly-funded abortions may have hurt the former New York Mayor with Republicans.  Senator McCain, who relaunched his campaign yesterday, remains in second place on 22%.

There is a lot of pressure on Barack Obama to come forward with detailed policies but Clive Crook, writing in today's Financial Times, thinks that vagueness might be one of his key strengths:

"He is winning support from very different constituencies. Much of the Democratic base adores him. That is how he came to beat Mrs Clinton in primary-election fundraising last quarter (astonishing everybody, not least the Clinton campaign). He excites the base because, aside from being black, he is a liberal’s liberal. His voting record in the Senate places him close to Edward Kennedy, way to the left of the repositioned Mrs Clinton. It helps that, unlike her, he was against the Iraq war from the start.  Outside the Democratic party, on the other hand, he appeals because, apart from being black, he seems moderate, likeable and unthreatening. Race aside, the base likes him for his Howard Dean qualities; Middle America likes him because he is no Howard Dean, or so they imagine. The best way to undermine this alliance would be to offer a detailed manifesto. Better to stay in the realm of anaesthetic generalities."

"Better to stay in the realm of anaesthetic generalities"?  That may be a good electoral strategy but it's very high risk for governing.

Comments

[TimberWolf]

When I saw the headline I thought you were writing about Dave Cameron, Leader of the Conservative Party.

[Oba of Benin]

He seems like a nice guy.

I hope people focus more on his policies instead of his colour.

I would not vote for him because his policies will make the world less safe.

[Umbrella man]

TimberWolf makes a good comparison. A real danger for Cameron and Obama is that they will look less attractive once voters have a chance to test their policies but the commentariat won't forgive them if they do not have policies.

[Michael Veitch]

"I would not vote for him because his policies will make the world less safe."

Surely you are not saying, by implication, that by going into Iraq in the first place, Bush/Blair HAVE made the world a safer place! The main reason I opposed the war(as a Conservative) was because I believed it would fuel the disgusting anti-western/US/UK the is now so prevalent in the Arab world (and indeed amongst many here in the UK) and thereby act as a recruiting sergeant for the extremists now maiming and killing on a daily basis in Iraq. I'm not saying that 7/7 and the many foiled atrocities here in the UK & US since 9/11 wouldn't have happened at all had we not gone into Iraq, but I think there would have been far fewer such instances. So please please don't try and argue that the polices of Bush, Blair, Rumsfeld, Cheney etc have made us (or anyone else) safer!

Having said all that, I hope that the next US President isn't elected merely because of their position on the war. I'm genuinely not convinced by Obama, and really hope the Republican base have the sense to pick someone who could beat him or Clinton (ie - Guilliani or McCain).

And on final note, full marks on launching this site Tim - compulsory reading for US politics obsessives like myself!

[Teddy Bear]

Michael - I urge you to read 'The High Cost of Peace' by Yosef Budansky. It will enlighten you as to what was going on in the Arab world pre 9/11 and how our previous leaders chose to ignore it. It will turn your head around about what Bush and Blair actually did and why. Also why they can't give their reasons publicly.

[JF]

Teddy Bear, you're exactly right. Barack "Neville Chamberlain" Obama won't make the US safer, but he will make the Muslim world safer.

By the way, Michael, please don't put aside the effect Iraq has had on Libya, Syria, and North Korea when evaluating Bush's performance. It's fashionable to blindly criticize Bush these days, but history will look upon him kindly.

[Teddy Bear]

So long as ignorant liberals believe the militant Islamic strategy that 'we are to blame' for their miltitancy and seek to appease them, we are in deep 'doo-doos' without a paddle.

It's the 'Bummer' in Obama ;o)

The goal of militant Islam is to convert EVERYBODY to Islam, and kill the rest. Dhimmitude by us is just one of the steps in this strategy.

[Frogg (USA)]

I'm a little distrusting of polls involving "adults" (many aren't citizens; many don't vote) which often net results as much as 7 to 10 points different from likely voters. Most polls of likely voters show Hillary Clinton double digits ahead of Obama.

I'm a conservative and will vote Republican. However, I did read up on Obama's past record after he got so much recognition as a speaker at the DNC convention in 2004. He is extreme left, has corruption ties in his past, and is a George Soros puppet. Once his record is known he will not have a chance. He is all flowery talk and no substance; and, recently has made some mistatements that have everyone confused.

There's another poll out today showing Guiliani leading in three swing states over Hillary Clinton:
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Republican Rudolph Giuliani is favored over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton for the US presidency in three key electoral states, while ex-vice president Al Gore might be the Democrats strongest choice for 2008, a new poll showed Thursday.

The Quinnipiac University poll showed that former New York mayor Giuliani, who is leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination, would beat Democrat Senator Clinton solidly in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The three populous states are seen as crucial swing states in any election, with their voters never clearly in the Republican or Democrat camp.

In Florida, Giuliani topped Clinton -- the wife of former president Bill Clinton -- 49-41 percent; in Ohio 46-41 percent, and in Pennsylvania 47-43 percent.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=173278
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I would also have to say that it is just way to early to be looking at polls in American politics. Things may turn upside down and inside out before we near election day.

I don't know if Hillary is a hawk or not. However, the policies of Bush were actually a continuation of the policies of Bill Clinton. And, Hillary, seemed more a hawk than most of the other Dems throughout all of this. Her softened approach now may very well simply be to appeal to her left base in order to win the primary. Time will tell.

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