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TeaK

Mitt had a very poor showing at the GOP straw poll in Linn County. He got less than 5% despite pouring a lot of money into Iowa lately. Sure, it's just a county poll, but the 2nd largest county in Iowa.

JF

Tim, thanks for the article. As a Mitt Romney supporter, I appreciate the focus on his strengths.

That said, I'm not prepared to call him the front-runner. The growing attacks on his Mormonism and the entry of Fred Thompson into the race have stalled his rise in the polls. I believe he'll make a good showing in the race, and his strategy to use Iowa and New Hampshire to slingshot his way to the nomination seems sound given his position, but look for vicious attacks to begin in the second half of the year. Whether or not he can survive such attacks remains to be seen, given the success of negative attack ads in previous campaigns.

On the other hand, look for him to further distance himself from his rivals when the 2Q fundraising numbers are announced.

Adam

Don't fall into the trap of overstating Romney's strengths. Both Giuliani and McCain are bypassing Iowa and New Hampshire, which probably goes a long way to explaining Romney's good polling there.

Praguetory

Interesting article. Thanks for the useful background info you have included. What about Ron Paul?

Tim Aker

Thanks for your comments.

Adam - Giuliani and McCain aren't competing in Iowa becayse they know they can't win there.

Praguetory - Ron Paul has good ideas but comes across as mad. The dyed-in-the-wool libertarian constitutionalists support him and he has a big following, but he just has something about his character whereby everything that's wrong with America seems to be some sort of conspiracy theory. He'll stay til the end but won't even come close to winning a state.

JF

Adam, you've confused the sequence. Giuliani and McCain withdrew from Iowa after Romney's sustained high polling numbers scared them away, not the reverse. Similarly, Romney's high New Hampshire polling numbers are deterring Giuliani from seriously competing there, even though if Giuliani had the courage to fight it out, he might win it. This is a strange choice, as a Giuliani win in NH would immediately end Romney's campaign.

Davod

I started worrying about Romney after I discovered his health care plan involved pushing a large number of possible state recipients into the Federal system. Not a good model for National healthcare reform. Where do you send the overflow, Canada.

JF

Davod, can you provide the link for that? I don't recall reading that and would be interested in more information.

bundyfan

The Mormon thing is a little strange to let go of but I like what Romney stands for. And hey, better a Mormon than some damned pinko.

Steevo

Here's my take on your take Tim. Romney is a clever manipulator... and rich. A smart organizer and opportunist who will say and do what's necessary, according to the... pulse? Or maybe I've just missed something here and you believe he is truly genuine, sincere... a man of his word :-)

I am curious, if you care to response who do you like now, and why? You must have an opinion based on your own values?

JF

Steevo, you clearly believe Romney is a liar. Where has he made a promise in a campaign that he hasn't kept?

Steevo

JF you are jumping to one big conslusion. If you can't accept that too bad.

I addressed Tim on my take of his take. I would like him to respond.

JF

Steevo, one doesn't lightly toss out words like "manipulator," without substantiation. It appears you can't, but I can respect that you don't want to engage on this.

Steevo

Baloney. You have no clue of my intention for writing that post. So "manipulator" pricks your thin skin. I have no respect for you to to explain in your typical mode: arrogant and presumptive. Too bad if people here are not gonna see this nomination process eye to eye with you. Get over yourself, you're a fool here.

I'll respond to Tim.

JF

Steevo, I'll let you take a valium and give it time to take effect before I respond.

Steevo

You're lost and your ego is making you an idiot.

JF

I see it still hasn't taken effect yet.. I'll wait some more, then. Just let me know when you're ready.

Steevo

LOL ready for what?

Mike

Romney's hurdle is that his legitmate weakness (the abortion flip-flop) has been dishonestly exploited by his foes.

He never flipped on the issue of gay rights. He stood up for "gay rights" back in 1994 but never advocated gay marriage. It was the same consistent position held by liberals and conservatives alike in the 1990s. Even President Clinton signed DOMA and no one accused him of opposing gay rights.

Now that Romney opposes gay marriage in 2007, the media, the Democrats, and John McCain accuse Romney of flipping on the issue because he supported "gay rights" in 1994. The problem is that "gay rights" never meant "gay marriage." Romney was consistent.

However, since Romney did flip on abortion, the false charge on the gay marriage issue gains instant credibility. Romney's playing it right so far though.

For the record, I'm a currently undecided Republican, though I will not support Rudy or McCain in the primary.

Al Gunn

I'd love to hear more about Ron Paul, if there are any of his supporters in the house.

And here's a question for all those Republican supporting Tories. Who would be the Democrat we'd most like/be least put out to see win and why?

Steevo

Yeah well put Mike and pertinent points. About McCain I have to say his willingness to go for a low blow has turned me off for a long time, along with a deserved attitude. I've become increasingly impressed with Romney. I tend to forgive a little cockiness because he seems readily accessible. And along with Thompson he's the most conservative among the front runners. But Rudy is still good :-)

Mike

I'd happily support Rudy in the general election. Probably McCain too though I'd be holding my nose big time!

mike

no "JF" Romney's numbers were high before they left. Why do you think they left?

S. Baker

Well I am a little disappointed in Romney's flip flop on abortion, however with that said not enough to see Billary in the white house!

Frogg

For a list of the top ten issues Romney sees facing America, you can read an article here:

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060711/OPINION01/607110364/1035/OPINION

Whether you believe in what Romney says or not, he has been pretty good about keeping his campaign promises.

The think I like most about Romney is that he is easily communicates the conservative ideas and is very persuasive in doing so. He also has great organization skills and is a "can do" person.

I haven't made my mind up yet either; and, I could easily support any of the top tier candidates (except McCain). It should be noted that the poll numbers for two candidates have been steadily going in the right direction (while the rest have made a downward turn). Those two are Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

Speaking of Fred....

the Dems are so afraid of him they have started an attack on him even though he hasn't even announced he is running yet...

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/010347.php

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