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Edison Smith

There may be a God after all. I'm a fully paid-up member of the Anyone But Hillary Campaign and Obama moving ahead is very good news.

I like the bit that was mentioned in the Telegraph article today:

The most telling exchange came when Obama was asked how his presidency would be a break with the past when he had so many of Bill Clinton's former aides in his foreign policy team.

Mrs Clinton let out her notorious guffaw, known as "the Cackle". "I want to hear that," she said. But Mr Obama was ready. "Well, Hillary, I'm looking forward to you advising me as well," he said, freezing her smile.

The guy's got spunk. I like it.

I think Obama has a better chance of winning a general election. Hillary divides far too much, and could never consider a 50-state strategy, despite the Republicans being in such a mess. Her as the Decomocrat nominee would unite all Republicans, and Republican waveres, and even if she waas victorious, it would messy, as in 2000.

Ben Surtees

Hillary can't survive losing Iowa it's simple as that... on the GOP side things are more unclear but for the Dems Iowa is key.

Should Obama or Clinton win in Iowa they are likely to ride that win through into New Hampshire and then South Carolina and on into 'Super Tuesday'...

Edwards could throw a spanner in the works with a win in Iowa but Obama would probably need to foul up (and he and his campaign have shown no sign of doing that so far)... so on balance i think the nomination is his to lose.

Having been saying for years now that neither Hillary or Gulianni would be the major party nominees in '08 I cant help feeling rather smug about the ways thins have gone.

mamapajamas

Edison, re: "and could never consider a 50-state strategy, despite the Republicans being in such a mess."

Actually, the Republicans aren't in all that much of a "mess". We have a good string of candidates to choose from, and at least four of them are excellent.

Don't count on MSM reports that Evangelicals will never support Rudy or that Eastern "country club" Republicans will never support Romney, or whatever.

Right now, the MOST important issue in the US is the border... 80% want it locked down and fenced YESTERDAY... and ALL of the Democrats are on record as being pro-illegal immigration in RECENT debates. While some of the Republicans have past records of being in support of illegals, some of them changed their minds after 9/11 as a national security issue (Giulianni, for instance), and others changed their minds after the US public melted down the switchboards in the Capitol building during the Amnesty debate a few months back. Many of them, ensconced in Washington as they were, didn't realize how important the issue is to the public.

If the Democrats continue supporting illegal immigration, they are going to LOSE in 2008. Period. And might lose Congress, as well.

Ben Surtees

mamapajamas - The national polls kinda undermine your argument, immigration is a massive issue within the Republican coalition and on the right, for most voters its far less important priority.

Having said that the GOP might as well "go for broke" on the issue of immigration now, but they will miss the Hispanic support they had in '04 (and that will cost in the congressional and presidential races out West)... but overall it isnt going to massively undermine the Dems next year.

On the subject of Congress... The GOP has already lost the Senate race in VA (Mark Warner) while the Senate races in races in CO, NM and NH are all leaning to the Dems and AK and KY are also looking competitive... against that there's the potential of a GOP pickup in LA and thats about it. While on pretty much every rating the GOP lags behind the Dems, it would take something very special to turn all that around IMHO and the solution is not the ind of policy agenda that Tancredo is articulating.

Maduka

mamapajamas,

Republicans have to be very careful about who they choose.

Romney will be shredded to pieces, not because he lacks competence but because he lacks conviction. He does not come across as authentic - the Clinton campaign will wreck havoc.

Fred Thompson doesn't seem to want the job.

Can Rudy survive the scandals and the dirt the Clinton team will throw at him?

Tancredo is too scary and has only one message.

Huckabee's major selling point is that "he is not as scary as other republican candidates", but does he have the experience to do the job.

McCain has the gravitas, but will the republican base support him?

Peggy McGilligan

Credibility is key. The only thing emptier than Hillary Clinton is her hyperbole; nobody's buying the rhetoric or her. Bill Clinton may have crowned himself the “comeback kid,” in another decade, in another millennium. Of course, that was also before he elected to school us on the vagaries of the meaning of the word, is.

When FBI Director Louis J. Freeh wrote, “The problem was with Bill Clinton, the scandals and rumored scandals, the incubating ones and the dying ones never ended. Whatever moral compass the president was consulting [Hillary] was leading him in the wrong direction. His closets were full of skeletons just waiting to burst out,” Mr. Freeh wasn’t kidding.

I don’t know the exact date the Clintons flushed their compasses, but any reasonable person should feel demeaned at the prospect of voting for Hillary. A vote is more than mere tacit approval; in this case it’s tantamount to complicity. So, I’m more than delighted the good people of the State of Iowa told Hillary to ride out on the horse (helicopter) on which she rode in, and I pray the good people of the State of New Hampshire will follow suit. I believe the good people of the State of South Carolina are already licking their chops. But if irony truly is the guiding principle of history, then savor: http://theseedsof9-11.com

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