All you need to know: 31st January 2008

GIULIANI AND SCHWARZENEGGER ENDORSE McCAIN

Two big endorsements for the Republican frontrunner.  More on the Terminator's endorsement.  Watch Giuliani's endorsement.

CHOOSING BETWEEN McCAIN AND ROMNEY

David Frum was a Giuliani supporter.  He is now trying to choose between Romney and McCain.  He made the short case for Romney to himself yesterday.  He now does the same re McCain: "The guy is brave. A hero in war and captivity, he has demonstrated the courage of his convictions in peacetime as well.  On Iraq, he was right when Donald Rumsfeld and President Bush were wrong. If the war ends well, it will be John McCain as much as General Petraeus who will deserve the credit.  He has devoted his political career to readying himself for the job of commander in chief. His judgments on war and peace have been vindicated. No American understands better the sacrifices that are asked of fighting soldiers; no American has a better right to ask in his turn for the devotion that he offered in his time.  Of all the remaining candidates, only John McCain is running as a war leader. And a war leader is what is most sorely needed by a nation at war."

"GRACELESS" McCAIN BEHAVING BADLY

Why isn't McCain behaving like a generous frontrunner?  That's the question posed by Ross Douthat who records McCain's barbs at Romney's expense.  The video below records McCain's pretty unnecessary "layoff" jibe at Romney:

Romney was no angel, of course.  He played on conservatives' doubts about McCain: "If you get endorsed by the New York Times, you're probably not a conservative."

Rich Lowry notes how McCain has won the nomination with only limited support from conservatives:

"Has this ever happened before? This is kind of amazing. I'm looking at CNN exit polls at the numbers for self-identified Republicans. McCain lost self-identified Republicans by a point in New Hampshire (oddly, he won registered Republicans); he lost self-identified Republicans by 14 points in Michigan; and he tied among self-identified Republicans in South Carolina and Florida. In other words, McCain is close to the presumptive nominee GOP nominee without having won self-identified Republican voters anywhere. What an extraordinary—and utterly unlikely—path to the nomination. Presumably, with his front-runner status enhanced, McCain will now begin to win self-identified Republicans, but he has pulled the political equivalent of an inside-straight to get here."

James Forsyth wonders if John McCain will Cameroonise the GOP.

WHO WILL JOHN EDWARDS BACK?

Barack Obama has been winning all of the big Democratic endorsements recently.  John Kerry.  Ted Kennedy.  Will he get the nod from John Edwards?  Toby Harnden speculates and concludes that Obama will benefit from having him out of the race even if he doesn't win his immediate backing.

EVALUATING THE OPINION POLLS

The Economist carries a great little table comparing opinion poll predictions and the actual votes for the Democrat candidates.

USA TODAY LISTS WHICH CELEBRITIES ARE BACKING WHICH DEMOCRATS

"Ron Howard, Quincy Jones, Ted Danson and wife Mary Steenburgen, America Ferrera, Amber Tamblyn and sport legends Magic Johnson and Billie Jean King have stumped for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama's celebrity campaigners include Scarlett Johansson, Chris Tucker, Kerry Washington and singer Usher.  Before bowing out of the race Wednesday, John Edwards had Susan Sarandon, Tim Robbins, James Denton and others stumping for him, and singers Jackson Browne, Bonnie Raitt and John Mellencamp performing." (link)

Comments

[Tony Makara]

I am the only person who worries that a McCain/Cameron special alliance could take us back to the days of Bush/Blair, particularly if McCain decides on an adventure over Iran. Don't get me wrong, I want to see David Cameron as prime minister, but I get the feeling that if McCain becomes president there are people at the top of the Conservative party hierarchy who would be too close to McCain. This could lead to a compliant Britain. Does anyone else see this as a cause for concern?

[Ron Paul supporter]

David Frum's new book demonstrates that he is a big, government, high tax, liberal imperialist. It is time for traditional conservatives to reclaim the GOP from Frum and the ex-Dems who make up the neo-con cabal who hijacked the party.

[Mark McClelland]

No. My worry is they will not be close enough.

[Ron Paul supporter]

The neo-cons will back McCain because he shares their liberal interventionist agenda. McCain's campaign is full of Henry Jackson Society patrons. He was the neo-cons insurance policy in case Guiliani failed. Guiliani screwed up spectacularly so his neo-con team will move to Plan B and join their cronies in the McCain campaign. They need a Presidential candidate who is willing support an attack on Iran and McCain will do nicely.

[jesse anderson]

Why would any one not think that the Iran's are part of the problem with thier behind the door dealing around the world. It one thing's to want to help the world but to want to kill all the Jew's is way out of my head, and to think that there will not be a war, they have kill a lot of people's in just the last 10s year, the sooner we deal with then, the better the insight on what can happen in this world.

[Tony Makara]

"They need a Presidential candidate who is willing support an attack on Iran and McCain will do nicely"

Ron Paul supporter, you would think that McCain, as a man with a military background, would understand the level of military commitment needed to overthrow the Iranian regime. That would have to be the policy if punitive air strikes failed to have an effect on Iran. I cannot see Iran being a nation who would be intimidated by air strikes alone. There are real dangers here. What about Russia? The Russians have sold various weapons systems to Iran for the last fifteen years or so, they are not going to welcome any US led aggression against Iran. China too has supplied Iran with silkworm missiles and would be hostile to American designs on Iran also. Any aggression by the United States could even bring Russia and China closer together, the two nations have already held exploratory military manoeuvres together. Does McCain realise the global implications of pursuing an aggressive anti-Iranian policy?

[jdun]

Like most conservative I don't like McCain.

If the US or Israel launch an air strike it is not to intimidate Iran. The air strike is to destroy their capacity to create nuclear weapons (including the scientists) and to kill Iran's leadership.

[Joanna]

Hmm...I've always considered myself in the category of very conservative, and I'm a strong supporter of John McCain. He actually has a high conservative rating--83 or so. He's someone who stands up for what he believes, has a far better record on pro-life issues than Romney, and has demonstrated good judgement--not just right opinions--on military/foreign policy issues. I definitely fall on Frum's side there.

What I fail to understand is how conservatives manage to support Romney.

[jdun]

There are reasons why conservatives do not like McCain.

If you actually study McCain record he is a liberal. He made a lot of conservatives enemies over the years with his liberal agendas.

[Joanna]

That doesn't answer the question about Romney. Unlike McCain, he's on the record as having been decidedly liberal in Massachusetts; now he wants to be seen as the perfect social and business conservative. At least McCain has he virtues of sincerety and integrity--and, thereby, predictability. Certainly I have some major issues with McCain--his stand on climate change, for example, and, yes, the McCain-Feingold bill. But compared to Romney he's a saint.

[jdun]

Who said conservatives like Romney. I sure didn't. You like McCain because to you he is a moderate to liberal. I as a conservatives don't like him for the same reason. He will not have my vote.

[mamapajamas]

jdun... exactly. I don't particularly like Romney, but I'll vote for him. If I have to choose between Hillary and McCain, if I vote for McCain at all, I'll have to hold my nose. I may choose NOT to vote if it comes to that.

I don't like him for the same reasons you don't. He is moderate to liberal. He is proud of his record as a "bipartisan".

So far, I've NEVER voted for something called a "bipartisan". I expect the ideas I believe in to be represented in Washington, not traded away in exchange for "go along to get along".

[Joanna]

jdun,

You are not reading very carefully...but then I often don't either. I am not just conservative, but very conservative, on just about every type--social, business, national security conservative. My top issue, other than abortion, is the war in Iraq--which explains much of why I like McCain--not the fact that he is far too liberal on a lot of measures.

Besides, I happen to hold an extremely old-fashioned view on the presidency: I want to respect the man I vote for. I voted for Bush in 2004 because I respected his character and his willingness to do what he said. Romney is the antithesis of that--far more like Clinton in his willingness to say whatever is necessary to win him an election. And I think this may be what hurt conservatives most these last few years: requiring our candidates to hold to strict ideological standards, without also ensuring that they were men and women of good moral character.

[pro_usa1776]

Joanna, Romney is so much better than McCain. I want a president that is not on his death bed, not one who decries Mitt for actually having a Job for the last 25 yrs, not one that tried to jam an illegal immigrant bill down the throats of Americans. I lived in AZ and he was the most pathetic worm I have seen in a long time. I am an Active duty US Army officer and I think that he is nuts!