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Comments

Malcolm Dunn

Agree with all your points. Guiliani's strategy was always dangerous. We'll see how good he is now.He's going to have to be good to stand a chance.

Andrew Allison

I broadly agree with what you have to say, but I have a hunch that Guiliani has peaked to early in the opinion polls and has also given the momentum to his rivals.

Some friends in the US have also told me they regard him as purely a NYC man; not a man for Americans to get behind.

Obama thought he had New Hampshire by a crushing margin, and then Clinton won. Florida is not in the bag for Guiliani and if he doesn't win, I think his campaign will be all but over.

rightsideforum

Speaking as a supporter of his, it dissapoints me to say I think it's unlikely he'll win now - perhaps not even Florida. The strategy was bad and his campaign has been a one trick pony. He never confronted properly the social issue which in reality he isn't all the bad bad on, just not as right wing as the base would like.

If he wins Florida, he needs to win well and he may have enough of a boost to carry a hell of a lot of states on Feb 5th and push out McCain.

If not, he's finished and will be out soon after.

Even if he does win, it makes it all the more likely they'll end up without a candidate at the end of it all which is where the fun really begins.

jdun

He won't win Florida. I will be surprise if he does. Florida like the rest of the South are pro-gun pro-life. He made too many enemies in Southerns States. Even if he does take Florida it won't matter much because he is out of money. No money no campaign. Southern conservatives will not give money to a baby killer and gun grabber.

Anyway he is a Northerner and they are not like by the South.

Texas_Blueblood

"Anyway he is a Northerner and they are not like by the South. "

Well, I can tell you frfom the viewpoint of a Southerner that this isn't 1870 and we're actually ok with the fact that he's a Yankee. I really don't think McCain has a prayer against the Dems so I'm a bit upset that Guiliani looks like he won't make it. McCain was boring 8 years ago and even more boring now. He just doesn't have the personality and he's riding the wave of "I don't like Bush but I told you the surge would work." He is an admirable, loyal American however and I would certainly support him if he got the nod.

Romney has a chance, but only if Bush can turn the economy around and significant Iraq political progress can be made in the next year. Romney is too much of a Bush supporter to be a liked by a country with a 35% approval rating for Bush.

Huckabee would easily win the red states, but the fact that he's a former Baptist minister scares the hell out of the swing states. He might have a shot however, because all Americans hate the IRS and he wants to get rid of them. If he were to get the Republican nomination the ruling/capitalist class could contribute vast sums of money to get him elected as they would stand to make an outrageous amount of money without being taxed on any of it.

jdun

This is Southern politics not individual opinions.

1870 still is for a lot of Southerners. You look at every single President after JFK. They all came from the South or West. None of them are from the North. JFK got lucky but then again he was smart enough to pick a Southerner as his running mate.

You can't win the Presidency without the support of the South. The South is willing to elect a bad President before handling it to a Northerner. Just look at Carter, he was a no body but won the Presidency because Carter wasn't from the North and that's what matter the most. Clinton was smart by picking Gore as his running mate which at least in his mind guarantee one Southern State. Gore could have won the Presidency if he would have won one Southern State. Doesn't matter which one. He didn't, not even his own Southern State of Tennessee. The Southerns States acts like a political block. They tend to vote the same way.

Huckabee won't win. Conservatives hate him. Just go to any conservatives boards or better yet listen to Rush Limbaugh. He won't make it. Whoever win South Carolina will most likely get the Republican nomination.

Edward

First comment is the best - he needs Florida to get back in the race. It's there for the taking and he can get back in the race but he's got to be good. Now we'll see just how good he is...

Jonathan Powell

I think Rudy could win this yet. Romney has already showed himself to be a loser, if he doesn't win Michigan I think it's over for him, and even if he does I don't see him winning South Carolina or Florida, so he won't get any momentum. I think Huckabee wins South Carolina, but his support isn't broad enough to win the nomination (he's despised by conservatives AND moderates). Thompson's a good candidate, but he needs to win South Carolina to have credibility, which is obviously not compatible with Huckabee winning.

So it basically boils down to a fight between Rudy and McCain and given that McCain is not well-liked among republicans I think Giuliani has a very good chance.

comstock

It's a funny advert, from a British perspective, given that Giuliani is a Republican and the GOP have been in power for 8 years.

I simply couldn't imagine Major in 92 or Brown (had he gone for an election last November) coming out with the lines 'our nation is at war, our economy is in peril, our future is uncertain'

Gloy Plopwell

Mitt Romney is fabulous, stupendous. With stupendous momentum, he can win the whole thing.

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