Do American political trends cross the Atlantic?

Fraser Nelson, writing for today's News of the World (not online), thinks the answer to the above question is 'yes'...

'Yes' in terms of policy ideas: "If you want to predict Britain’s political future, don’t look for a crystal ball. Just look at America. Tax credits, Sure Start nurseries, tough-love welfare reform – all ideas shamelessly nicked from the US."

'Yes' in terms of candidates: "Our great countries are cut from the same cloth, with the same hungers.  We both saw off threats Germany succumbed to. Like fascism and David Hasslehoff’s music career.  We both elected radical right-wingers in the 1980s - Thatcher and Reagan. Their resolve ended the Cold War.  And Tony Blair’s New Labour was little more than a political tribute band to Bill Clinton’s “New Democrats.”

Fraser Nelson suspects that there is bad news for Gordon Brown in Barack Obama's triumph over Hillary Clinton: Voters are rejecting Clinton's message of experience and preferring Obama's message of hope and change.

David Cameron will certainly hope that Fraser is right.

Comments

[Richard Tracey]

Not only a message for Gordon Brown, but one for the tired Ken Livingstone here. 2008 promises the onward march for Boris Johnson in London and David Cameron to 10 Downing Street.

[Alan S]

BUT Clinton is probably more hated than Brown and Cameron is not as charismatic as Obama.

[Jonathan Powell]

I don't think we're at the Obama stage yet. Brown is analogous to the un-charismatic, pseudo-intellectual, face of the New Democrats: Al Gore. When Brown is tested at the polls, he will be defeated by a big-government "compassionate" conservative in the shape of Cameron. Whereas Bush represents the religion of America (Christianity) Cameron is a true believer in the religion of Europe: Environmentalism.

Once Cameron's brand of conservatism has proved ruinous, an Obama figure will emerge from either Labour or the Lib Dems.

[Yet Another Anon]

BUT Clinton is probably more hated than Brown and Cameron is not as charismatic as Obama.
In the Mid-West and much of the south though, the "Obama, sounds like Osama campaign" including talk that he attended Madrassah's in Indonesia is impacting on Barak Obama's support and the fact that he is a Liberal and of mixed origins will count against him very heavily in a number of parts of the USA. In addition he has little experience at front level politics, so while he might win the Democratic nomination, his chances of winning the Presidency are very low - I don't think that any of the Democrat candidates would beat any of the Republicans. I think John McCain will be the next President, Barak Obama might be chosen to be Vice President.

[David Boothroyd]

The idea that David Cameron and (even more wierdly) Boris Johnson are remotely comparable to Barack Obama is one of the most ludicrous I have seen this decade.

[Yet Another Anon]

Of course ideas go both way. When the US introduced a Welfare system in the 1930s they copied it lock, stock and barrel from the UK - even down to the name Public Assistance.

In 1935 the UK's Poor Law system was restyled onto a more national system - national rates of benefit (though the Communist Party campaigned for regional rates) including Unemployment Assistance (for when those with exhausted contributions - remarkably similar in concept to JSA(IB)); the US copied the system of County and Voluntary Hospitals.

The UK then 60 years later copied Roosevelts name for a scheme that largely duplicated UK schemes - The New Deal.

The US in the 1990s appeared to be attempting to copy the UKs NHS system - the fact is that countries around the world are copying everyone else as well as introducing innovations. It's nothing new.

[Margaret on the Guillotine]

Respectfully suggest that anyone who thinks (or wants) that British politics are, or should be, just some time-delayed version of America should read "After Blair" by Kieron O'Hara, which suitably debunks such a theory.

[Oscar Miller]

Watching Gordon Brown on Andrew Marr's show this morning he managed to remind the nation just how leaden and unable to reinvent himself he is. Last year he usurped Tony Blair to grab this spot and attempted to portray himself as PM in waiting. This morning, speaking in full tractor production mode he managed to sound as if he is still the Chancellor - after six months in the top job. While he could just about get away with blugeoning viewers with (dodgy) statistics as Chancellor, he can't as PM. He just has to be a whole lot more inspiring that this. The analogies with America are interesting, but with or without the Barak Obama mood music, I just don't think Gordon Brown is able to rise to the challenge he faces. I can imagine the Labour faithful watching the performance of their leader this morning with head in hands.

[billm99uk]

Actually the British politician Obama seems most like to me is Tony Blair circa 1997. Peolple like someone who can sound an optimistic, all-inclusive message of change. Remember "Things can only get better"? Of course this obviously means that US politics is merely following UK political trends, ten years on ;)

[mamapajamas]

Yet Another Anon... re:"In the Mid-West and much of the south though, the "Obama, sounds like Osama campaign" including talk that he attended Madrassah's in Indonesia is impacting on Barak Obama's support and the fact that he is a Liberal and of mixed origins...'

No, actually the fact that the man is a flaming socialist is what's counting the most against him in the Midwest and the South.