All you need to know: Super Duper Tuesday

The polling shows McCain and Obama surging.  McCain now enjoys an average 18.4% lead over Mitt Romney.  Given that the Republican primaries are winner-takes-all in terms of delegates, Senator McCain should wrap things up tonight.  The Democrat race is much more nail-biting  Hillary Clinton's large leads in national polls have evaporated to no more than a couple of digits.  Even if she wins states she will have to share delegates with Barack Obama.  He may win California and bellwether Missouri.  Victories in both of those two states will be very bad news for Hillary's White House bid.  If Obama wins New Jersey, too - in Clinton's backyard - he'll be the overwhelming favourite to secure the nomination.  The next few primaries favour Obama and so he might start to enjoy real momentum.

Clinton has been written off before, however.  Her voters tend to be more reliable and we've yet to see if Team Obama's inspirational videos (like this one) are producing frothy or real support.

OPINION POLLSTERS ARE NOT HAVING AN EASY TIME

UK opinion polling was humuliated by the 1992 General Election result.  All the pollsters got the result badly wrong.  This year US pollsters have struggled to keep up with the ebbs and flows of the race.  They were spectacularly wrong in New Hampshire when Mrs Clinton pulled off a surprise win.   Some pollsters will have some explaining to do after tonight, too.  Zogby, for example, has Obama ahead in its final California poll by 49% to 36%.  Survey USA has Clinton ahead by 52% to 42% in the same state (source).  Both can't be right!

BARACK OBAMA IS A LIBERAL

Cal Thomas urges Republicans to wake up to the fact that Barack Obama is a very left-wing candidate - favouring higher taxation and endorsed by the most left-liberal powerbrokers in the Democratic party - including Ted Kennedy and MoveOn.org.  As James Forsyth has noted, Barack Obama's reassuring rhetoric is effectively disguising the fact that he is the most liberal of America's one hundred senators and that's not liberal in the classical understanding of the term.  He's a big state interventionist, opposed to the war on terror.

McCAIN'S PROBLEMS WITH CONSERVATIVES ARE GROWING

We already know that Ann Coulter has promised to campaign for Hillary Clinton rather than John McCain.  She (ridiculously) asserted that Mrs Clinton is more hawkish that McCain.  Talk show host Rush Limbaugh has also junked McCain:

"If I believe the country will suffer with either Hillary, Obama or McCain, I would just as soon the Democrats take the hit . . . rather than a Republican causing the debacle," he said. "And I would prefer not to have conservative Republicans in the Congress paralyzed by having to support, out of party loyalty, a Republican president who is not conservative."

Another influential figure - James Dobson - has now said that he won't back the maverick Republican Senator.  James Dobson, a leader of American evangelicals said the following:

"I am deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, voted for embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings, opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, has little regard for freedom of speech, organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters in judicial hearings, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language."

Fred Barnes at The Weekly Standard urges conservatives to "grow up" and lists some of the reasons why Senator McCain is preferable to any Democrat.  At the same time he urges John McCain to do more to reach out to conservatives - beginning this week with his address to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.  BritainAndAmerica's Samuel Coates will be at the speech and will report back on these pages.

Comments

[Tony Makara]

Just like to remind everyone that C-SPAN will be providing comprehensive coverage from 01:00am GMT.

http://www.c-span.org/

[Alan]

Birmingham University seem to be doing a running commentaery of the evening!

Their students so they can stay up all night anyway!!

[Alan]

there address is

http://www.bucf.co.uk

Apologies!

[David]

Like in the UK Conservative Party, McCain is looking like dragging back the Republicans into sensible poitics. If James Dobson, a leader of American evangelicals, is against him then he is the right man for me! If one of the others win then roll on a Democrat win...

[Philip]

For what my view is worth about McCain on this side the Atlantic, I share James Dobson’s disappointment that the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, voted for embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings plus the rest of James Dobson’s list of reasons for disquiet. If McCain does get the nomination, I would hope he at least will appoint Huckabee as running mate to retain at least some level of credibility among those who value life and family.

I thought McCain is conservative on abortion but on very little else. But I suppose he’d be better than either of the Democratic frontrunners. As for Obama doing well – even, incredibly I think among some more conservative voters? – would this be another case of charisma and personality winning rather than right policy?

[Gordon's Missing Bottle]

Although I agree with Obama on very little indeed, I think he's right for America right now. The country's defining characteristics are optimism and courage and can-do tenacity, and whenever those die it requires a candidate who can revive them. Someone to sell the American Dream back to the American people. Sometimes it's someone from the left (FDR), sometimes from the right (Reagan).

I'd like to imagine there's a Republican candidate who can embody this, but there evidently isn't. There's a reason everybody wants to invoke Ronald Reagan. Their vision is to look back 28 years and go, "like that." But what set Reagan apart, what sets Obama apart, is the courage and foresight to go, "like this."

I like McCain, but he's 8 years late and the religious fringe is at the height of its powers after two terms of Bush. If Obama stumbles, he'll have a lucky escape and will have time to pull it around in office, but I don't see it, myself. The pendulum's swinging, and faster for being so far over to the Christian right. At least with Obama, America may gets its sense of confidence and hope back, and that's no small thing -- for the economy, for the face America shows the world and for its own social cohesion.

[mamapajamas]

Gordon, a socialist is NEVER going to be "right for America"... and that's what Obama is.

[Eddie Heath]

Will you guys stick to writing about BRITISH POLITICS. You clearly do not understand American politics. The polls are all over the place with Romney surging in other states, especially amongst conservatives -- where he enjoys 60% support.

[Frogg, USA]

Super Tuesday:

MCCAIN: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK -
9 states

ROMNEY: AK, CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT -
7 states

HUCKABEE: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV -
5 states

Total States to date:

Huckabee - 6
Romney - 11
McCain - 12

No wonder McCain was worried about Romney. But, it is all about delegates at the end of the day. Parties in individual states decide how to portion their delegates. The NE states were set up originally as "winner take all" to help Giuliani win the nomination. McCain was lucky to benefit from it. Most states divide them in proportion of votes.

Huckabee carried the Bible belt; McCain carried the typical blue liberal dem states that aren’t going to vote for him in November anyway; and Romney carried a hodge podge from everywhere but the south.

Romney will do a crunch count and decide whether to stay in or not based on the possibility of overtaking McCain. I don't know the full delegate count yet; but it seems like it would be difficult to do.

Hillary and Obama will be fighting it out probably until their convention.

[Ben Stevenson]

I think the delegate count is:
John McCain: 575
Mitt Romney: 250
Mike Huckabee: 160
Ron Paul: 16
1,191 delegates are needed for a win.

On the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has 740, and Barack Obama has 659 - with 2025 being the target.

[Malcolm Dunn]

I understand only about half the votes in California have been counted (it's 11.45 am in London). Does anyone know when the counting will be completed?

[pro_usa1776]

Hey Gordon's Missing Bottle what is with this GEM? "and the religious fringe is at the height of its powers after two terms of Bush." Did you know Obama belngs to a racist black church that continually talks about the "man." Notwithstanding the fact that the minister of the church believes that Louis Faharrkahn (racist black leader of the nation of Islam)is a noble person.