Britain and America

An early preview of the 2008 Senate races

With the US Presidential and Congressional elections only fifteen months away, Dan Hamilton takes a look at the tough Senate races that lie ahead.  His views are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of BritainAndAmerica.

First Tier

COLORADO

The utterly-uninspiring Wayne Allard, who has held this seat since 1996, is honouring his pledge to serve a maximum of two terms in the Senate and is retiring in 2008.  Having won his races in 1996 and 2004 by less than 3%, he would always have faced a difficult campaign in 2008.

Colorado narrowly voted for George W Bush in 2004 but it would be fair to say that the Republican’s traditional grip on the state, as in the case of Virginia, is weakening.  Their internal party machinery in the state is in turmoil following the loss of the state’s other Senate seat in 2004 to the then Attorney General Ken Salazar and the Governorship and a congressional seat in 2006.   

Whilst the popular Democratic Congressman Mark Udall has been on the record since 2004 as a challenger for the Senate seat (regardless of Allard’s decision), the Republicans appear to be saddled with former Congressman Bob Schaffer as their candidate.   The Republicans would love former Governor Bill Owens to run, yet he has shown no inclination to give up the lucrative directorships and lobbying contracts afforded to senior former politicians in the United States.  For a state that is increasingly moderate, Schaffer’s ultra-conservative positions on virtually every issue will make it extremely difficult for the Republicans to hold onto this seat.

Republicans were casualties of corruption

It now appears that George Allen will lose his re-election battle in Virginia and the Democrats will take charge of the Senate as well as the House.  That result concludes a miserable set of elections for America's Republicans.  Here are BritainAndAmerica.com's reactions to the results...

This was an election about competence - not ideology.  That's the verdict of this morning's Wall Street Journal and was captured by Bill Clinton's "They can't run anything right" remark.  Two British newspapers are headlining that the ousted Republicans were casualties of (the Iraq) war.  That is obviously partly true but corruption and competence were bigger factors.  Blogger Rich Galen has written: "The Republican Leadership has allowed the Members to engage in self-dealing on an unprecedented scale. Whether it was trips paid for by lobbyists; hiring family members at high salaries to plan parties; steering consulting business to former staffers; or outright bribery, Members of Congress have been developed a sense of entitlement which would embarrass most of us."  At least eight Republican congressmen lost their seats as a direct result of scandal and 'corruption and ethics' topped the list of issues of concern for American voters in exit polling (with a 42% response rate).   Iraq was the second most important issue (40%) but was again an issue of competence.  Most Americans supported the toppling of Saddam but have seen 'the Rumsfeld doctrine' of reliance on smaller, higher-tech ground forces fail to deliver victory.

The Republicans didn't just lose an election... they had already lost their way. Those are actually the words of GOP congressman Mike Spence.  The Republicans failed to tackle issue after issue over the last two years.  The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes has noted how they ducked social security reform then immigration reform and then tax reform.  Every time they avoided reform in order to protect their majorities.  But they became the do-nothing Congress and now have the worst of all worlds: They've lost their majorities and, in the process, bequeathed no legislative accomplishments.

America is still a conservative nation.  That is David Frum's verdict in this morning's Telegraph.  Mr Frum, former Bush speechwriter and blogger, argues that 'The House Class of 2006' is much more conservative than the existing Democrat caucus.  The Democrats, for example, nominated pro-gun and pro-life candidates to (successfully) unseat Republican Senators in Virginia and Pennsylvania.  Taxcutting champion Grover Norquist has noted that very few Democrats were willing to run on higher taxes.  Although there were referendum victories for minimum wage increases and stem cell research, most state ballot votes produced conservative victories.  Gay marriage bans (except in Arizona) were adopted in more states and there were also conservative victories on cannabis, racial preferences and English as the main language.

A hardline stance on the immigration issue didn't help Republicans.  A number of conservative commentators had called on the GOP to take a hardline on immigration but Tuesday night's results cast doubt on their prescription.  Arizona Congressmen Hayworth and Graf were leading "enforcement-only" hardliners on immigration. Both were defeated.

The setbacks for the GOP were significant.  Some Republicans are saying that the GOP losses were only average for midterm elections in a presidential second term.  That is true on a superficial level but given the gerrymandering of congressional districts that mean there are fewer and fewer competitive districts, the Republican defeat was serious and would have been historically more significant without partisan redistricting.

Colorado, Virginia and Ohio should concern Republicans for 2008.  Tuesday night's results were particularly bad for the Republicans in the three states of Colorado, Virginia and Ohio.  Ethical failures hurt the GOP across Ohio and Democrat gains in Colorado and Virginia confirmed the trends of recent years where Democrats have been doing well in state contests.  Those three states were crucial to George W Bush's presidential victories and Democrats will be targeting them heavily for 2008.

The GOP can keep the White House.  With discipline and reform the Republicans can still stop a Clinton-Obama ticket (many Democrats' favourite option) from taking the White House.  Both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani remain very popular politicians - particularly with crucial independent voters.  The GOP will be hoping that Nancy Pelosi's Speakership will lead the Democrats in a left-liberal direction and will remind moderate voters of the dangers of putting a Democrat in the Oval Office.

A Republican Senate is vital for Bush's ambitions for the Supreme Court

It's 3.30am GMT and bedtime.  As predicted Rick Santorum has lost Pennsylvania - a terrible defeat for conservatives - one of three Democrat pick-ups (so far).

Republicans are still in with a chance of holding Virginia, Missouri, Tennessee and Montana.  They need to hold three of that quartet to keep a slim majority in the Senate and my guess is that they will.  If they only keep two of those seats it will be a 50-50 Senate and Republicans will be dependent upon the casting vote of the Vice President.

For all of the reasons identified yesterday - pork-barrelled projects and a failure to progress reform - the GOP probably deserve to lose control of the House but keeping a majority in the Senate will be crucial to one jewel in the tarnished crown of George W Bush's presidential legacy.  That jewel is his legacy of judicial appointments.  Judicial activism has seen liberals advance causes that they have been unable to deliver at the ballot box.  Abortion rights are the stand out example of that activism.  The appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court have tilted the Court in a more conservative direction.  The next two years may see another justice retire and President Bush's most important final act will be the man or woman he sends to the Senate for confirmation.

There'll be more posts later - one will focus on what else George W Bush might do with his final two years and another on what Democrats would do differently with regards to Iraq.  In the meantime RealClearPolitics.com is the ideal place for the very latest election news.

Why the Republicans will almost certainly lose the House

Conservative columnist George Will recently wrote that if the Democrats couldn't make big gains in these mid-term elections they should find another career.

The cartoon on the right from the front page of a recent issue of Rolling Stone magazine illustrates some of the many reasons why the Republicans are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives in today's elections:

• The growth of pork and sleazy links with lobbyists;
• Suggestions that the GOP has been blind to civil liberties;
• The instant messages from Representative Tom Foley to Congressional page boys;
• Lack of gun control;
• The power of big money.

The fact is that a liberal magazine like Rolling Stone will always object to Republicans on issues like these.  In reality the big additional reason why the Republicans are almost certain to lose the House - and possibly the Senate - is Iraq.   A recent poll for the Wall Street Journal suggested that only 34% of Americans approved of George W Bush's handling of Iraq.  63% disapproved.

Bush's tax cuts have erased the Republican disadvantage on the economy.  In 2004 the economy was one of John Kerry's most potent issues.  There was talk then of a 'jobless recovery' but last Friday unemployment fell to 4.4%.  The same WSJ poll now finds that the President's handling of the economy splits Americans evenly (48% approving, 48% disapproving).

The extent to which Republicans can stem their losses will depend upon the party's famed 72 hour operation.   As the liberal New York Times has correctly said: the last three days will see the Republican organisational muscle attempt to suffocate the intensity of excited Democrat supporters.  Core GOP supporters certainly appear much less energised.  Fiscal profligacy, the conduct of the Iraq war and lack of progress on issues of importance to social conservatives have all demotivated the base.  In yesterday's WSJ Fred Barnes castigated the White House and particularly the Republican House leadership for failing to make progress on social security reform, tax simplification and immigration policy.  The GOP leaders are likely to lose their House majority, he concluded, on the back of doing nothing rather than because of a bold legacy of reforms.

RealClearPolitics.com has the latest on which way the House and Senate are likely to go.