Britain and America

Can Florida save Giuliani's White House ambitions?

Rudy Giuliani's great gamble was to adopt what has been called his 'late state strategy'.  The former New York Mayor decided to skip the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and pin everything on winning Florida at the end of the month.  He currently leads in Florida by an average 4%.  Giuliani told reporters on Friday that "Florida is real important to us so we're gonna put, if not everything into Florida, almost everything."  Rudy's latest ad - showing in Florida - urges Republicans to ignore the pundits and vote for the leadership that only he can provide:

Florida votes one week before 'Super-Duper or Tusunami Tuesday', the day when the delegate-rich states of California, New York and others vote.  Some think the strategy could still work -  particularly if the field is still divided by the time Floridians vote.  Huckabee won Iowa, McCain New Hampshire and Romney is currently leading in Michigan.

The problem for Rudy is that national opinion amongst Republican voters is turning against him.  After leading national polls throughout 2007 he's now fallen to 16% in the RealClearPolitics poll of polls.  That's more than 9% behind McCain and nearly 6% behind Huckabee.

In an article for The Weekly Standard, Matthew Continetti lists some suggested reasons why Rudy2008 has hit problems:

• Too many references to New York and 9/11 with no clear agenda for the future.
• The rise of the Obama phenomenon - a phenomenon that Rudy is less equipped to overcome.  Support for the Rudy candidacy was partly based on the belief that he was well-placed to defeat Hillary Clinton.
• "The indictment of former New York City police commissioner and Giuliani protégé Bernard Kerik on corruption charges, and a report in the Politico that the mayor's office may have paid improperly for trips Giuliani took to visit then-girlfriend Judith Nathan in the Hamptons."
• Already holding positions on guns and abortion that upset many traditional conservatives he has adopted what he hoped would be compensatory hardline positions on security and economics but these positions have risked upsetting moderates.

Although the landscape looks increasingly difficult for Giuliani, this has been a race with so many twists and turns and with so much punditry repudiated, that it would be very unwise to write off him off.  A win in Florida - however narrow - would give Giuliani all the momentum he needs for likely victories in his home state of New York and socially liberal California.  Between them Florida, New York and California would put Giuliani into the strongest of positions.

Rudy Giuliani's worldview

In the fifth summary of leading presidential candidates' foreign policy priorities, we look at the main themes of Rudy Giuliani's September 2007 article for Foreign Affairs: Toward a Realistic Peace.  Scroll down this link to see those contenders already profiled.  Tomorrow we'll look at John Edwards' worldview.

We are only in the early stages of 'the terrorists' war on us' that began on 9/11: "The defining challenges of the twentieth century ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Full recognition of the first great challenge of the twenty-first century came with the attacks of September 11, 2001, even though Islamist terrorists had begun their assault on world order decades before. Confronted with an act of war on American soil, our old assumptions about conflict between nation-states fell away. Civilization itself, and the international system, had come under attack by a ruthless and radical Islamist enemy.  America and its allies have made progress since that terrible day. We have responded forcefully to the Terrorists' War on Us, abandoning a decadelong -- and counterproductive -- strategy of defensive reaction in favor of a vigorous offense. And we have set in motion changes to the international system that promise a safer and better world for generations to come.  But this war will be long, and we are still in its early stages. Much like at the beginning of the Cold War, we are at the dawn of a new era in global affairs, when old ideas have to be rethought and new ideas have to be devised to meet new challenges."

Defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan would embolden the enemies of civilisation: "We cannot predict when our efforts will be successful. But we can predict the consequences of failure: Afghanistan would revert to being a safe haven for terrorists, and Iraq would become another one -- larger, richer, and more strategically located. Parts of Iraq would undoubtedly fall under the sway of our enemies, particularly Iran, which would use its influence to direct even more terror at U.S. interests and U.S. allies than it does today. The balance of power in the Middle East would tip further toward terror, extremism, and repression. America's influence and prestige -- not just in the Middle East but around the world -- would be dealt a shattering blow. Our allies would conclude that we cannot back up our commitments with sustained action. Our enemies -- both terrorists and rogue states -- would be emboldened. They would see further opportunities to weaken the international state system that is the primary defense of civilization. Much as our enemies in the 1990s concluded from our inconsistent response to terrorism then, our enemies today would conclude that America's will is weak and the civilization we pledged to defend is tired. Failure would be an invitation for more war, in even more difficult and dangerous circumstances."

>> Video: Giuliani attacks Hillary Clinton's policy on Iraq

McCain wins the support of a better face of American evangelicalism

The biggest barrier to Giuliani's road to the Republican nomination is the distrust felt towards him by the social conservatives that form the GOP's bedrock army of volunteers.  New York's former Mayor came bottom of the vote at a recent conference of Christian conservatives.  Today's news that leading evangelical Pat Robertson has endorsed Giuliani is consequently something of a coup for the man currently frontrunning the Republican race:

Here's some reaction on the blogosphere: "The endorsement of perhaps the best-known living Christian conservative cannot hurt the socially liberal New Yorker's chances. Mr Robertson, it seems, endorsed Mr Giuliani because "To me, the overriding issue before the American people is the defense of our population from the blood lust of Islamic terrorists." - The Economist's Democracy in America.

"Just talked to a top social conservative. He says, hinting that more prominent social cons will end up going with Rudy, "There's plenty more where this comes from." On the impact of the Robertson endorsement on the race: "What it does for Rudy is it says, 'It's OK to vote for Rudy.' I think there will be more of that, pre-nomination and post-nomination." On conservative evangelical voters and Giuliani: "If Rudy is the nominee, they're going to vote for him—period." - Rich Lowry, National Review.

But The Times' Gerry Baker remembers Pat Robertson's ugly first reaction to 9/11 and concludes: "I'd far rather have Sam Brownback's support."

Which is where BritainAndAmerica started the year.  Unfortunately for Giuliani, Brownback has endorsed McCain.  Bill Kristol writes:

"McCain got the better of this one. Brownback is a human-rights-supporting representative of much that is admirable about religious conservatism. Robertson is a currying-favor-with-dictators voice from the past. Does Rudy really want his support?"

Bill Kristol is right.  I'd rather have Brownback's Wilberforce Republicanism than Robertson's narrowness.

PS There's been quite a lot of discussion recently about the alleged decline of the religious right.  The debate was started by a major feature in the New York Times.  The video below from Gallup shows how trends in support for Bush from churchgoers are actually consistent with the rest of the population:

The Atlantic Bridge's Inaugural Margaret Thatcher Lecture

Click here to watch Rudy Giuliani's London speech.  Mayor Giuliani is introduced by Dr Liam Fox MP, Shadow Defence Secretary.

Three former Thatcher advisors join 'Team Rudy'

Three former advisors to Margaret Thatcher - Robert Conquest, Nile Gardiner and David Pryce-Jones - have been appointed to Rudy Giuliani's campaign team:

"“I support Mr. Giuliani because I see his approach to our international challenges as serious, careful and responsible,” said Conquest.

“Mayor Giuliani is a proven leader with a clear vision for keeping America safe and offers the kind of strong leadership that the United States needs to win the Terrorists’ War on Us,” said Gardiner. “In my time working with former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, I observed how her strong principles governed her decision making. Rudy Giuliani is a leader in her mold.”

The other new addition to the Mayor’s foreign policy team is National Review Senior Editor David Pryce-Jones, who joins as a Senior Foreign Policy Advisor.

“Mayor Giuliani is someone who sets an example of leadership which I find impressive. He clearly understands the dangers we are facing today,” said Pryce-Jones."

Rudy Giuliani in London

Rudy Giuliani is photographed below with Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and Baroness Thatcher.  A report of the Mayor's Inaugural Margaret Thatcher lecture has been posted on ConservativeHome.com.

10pm: It's clear that the Thatcher photo opportunity means most to the Rudy people...

Josh Sutton reports from a Giuliani lunch in London

Republican presidential front-runner Rudy Giuliaini drew inspiration from Winston Churchill in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 terror attack on New York, he revealed today.

Speaking at a fund-raising lunch in London, Mr Giuliani said that his admiration for the British wartime leader, the architect of the special relationship between Britain and the USA, has made him all the more determined to confront terrorism and strengthen the bond between the two countries.

He even quoted from Churchill’s “fight them on the beaches”  wartime broadcast to underline his commitment to pursuing the War on Terror.

Mr Giuliani cited the alliance between Churchill and Roosevelt, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and Tony Blair and George W Bush as evidence of the powerful bond between Britain and the US. He would make it his mission as President to strengthen the relationship further.

The lunch was attended by about 100 wealthy Americans and dozens of London-based US correspondents.

The streets of London are paved with gold for US Presidential candidates

Rudy Giuliani has arrived in London.  On Sunday I noted the 'Thatcher factor' behind his visit.

In addition to 'Maggie' I understand that New York's former Mayor will also be meeting Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Conservative leader David Cameron.  He's probably the only candidate in the Republican primary field who can win such cross-party attention.

But it's not all summitry.  A key reason for Giuliani's visit is to extract money from the wealthy and growing American population that can be found in London.  Huge numbers of American businessmen and firms operate in London - the numbers have allegedly been swollen by people escaping the regulatory insensitivity of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.  Some London politicians have suggested that a statue of Senator Sarbanes and Representative Oxley be erected in the booming Docklands area of Britain's capital city as a cheeky thank you for the business that (disputedly) has migrated across the Atlantic as a consequence of their lawmaking.

Mayor Giuliani isn't the only presidential candidate to have travelled to the British Isles in search of campaign funds.  Romney and Thompson have already been here.  As I learnt during a discussion last night with National Public Radio, Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton will also be attending fundraisers on this side of the pond in the next few months.

I'm attending tonight's Atlantic Bridge Margaret Thatcher lecture and will file a report immediately afterwards (about 11pm UK time, 6pm ET).

4pm: Video of Rudy Giuliani on his London visit - outside 10 Downing Street

Everyone wants to be photographed with Margaret Thatcher

In June it was Fred Thompson who crossed the Atlantic to be photographed with Baroness Thatcher.

Last week Gordon Brown caused consternation in the Conservative Party as he was photographed with the Prime Minister that he castigated when she was in Downing Street.

Next week the Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani arrives in London at the invitation of Liam Fox, Conservative Defence spokesman.  He will give Atlantic Bridge's Inaugural Margaret Thatcher Lecture.  The hero of 9/11 will receive the Margaret Thatcher medal of freedom.  Republicans in London and British admirers will pay up to £10,000/ $20,000 to pay to sit on the top table with Mayor Giuliani and Margaret Thatcher.  Most dinner guests will be paying £450/ $900 or £1,000/ $2,000.

Margaret Thatcher connects Republican candidates with what American conservatives see as the 'golden Reagan era'.  You can expect the Rudy-Thatcher photo to figure prominently in Mayor Giuliani's attempts to assure the GOP primary voters that he is 'one of them' as Lady Thatcher might say.

London's Sunday Times reports Rudy Giuliani's attacks on Hillary Clinton's claims to be a new Iron Lady - as Margaret Thatcher was famously described.

He told The Sunday Times' Sarah Baxter:

“I don’t think Margaret Thatcher would impugn the integrity of a commanding general in a time of war, as Hillary Clinton did, or require an army to give a schedule of their retreat to the enemy, as the Democrats are suggesting."

Giuliani has taken out a full page advertisement in the New York Times which attempts to link Hillary Clinton with a recent very controversial caricature of General Petraeus as General 'Betray-us'.  A Rudy2008 campaign video also makes the same point.

The strong attacks on Hillary Clinton are part of the 'politics of confrontation' that Rudy Giuliani used to such electoral effect in New York.  Matthew Continetti believes that this polarising of the contest between the Republicans and Senator Clinton is core to Mayor Giuliani's plan to bring socially conservative Republicans to his side.   This strategy was described in more detail by Thomas Edsall in a May article for the New Republic.

Giuliani's Wednesday night speech will focus on foreign policy.  Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, Niall Ferguson (an adviser to the McCain campaign) worries that Giuliani isn't thinking enough about all necessary foreign challenges:

"The descent of the Greater Middle East into a large-scale war, the disintegration of the system of nuclear non-proliferation, the escalating competition between developed and emerging economies over scarce raw materials and the breakdown of the system of multilateral trade liberalisation."

I'll be at Wednesday's dinner and will file a full report afterwards.

Giulianism

If British Conservatives had their choice of Republican presidential candidate the former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani would be the overwhelming favourite.  Their enthusiasm perplexes many American conservatives.  Linking to the BritainAndAmerica finding, Kathryn Jean Lopez of NRO stated simply: Thankfully They Don't Have A Vote.

Although Giuliani holds a (decreasing) lead in the GOP field - dented by some missteps, the emergence of Fred Thompson (now running at 20%) and strong showings in the bellwether states by Mitt Romney - the analysts think that the resistance of Lopez and other social conservatives will eventually defeat Giuliani.  Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook has said that Giuliani winning the GOP nomination would force him to rethink everything he has ever learnt about Republican presidential politics.  Christian conservatives - who have been talking more and more favourably about Romney despite his Mormon faith - warn that Giuliani can't reach the White House without them.  Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention, who has criticised Giuliani's family life, has warned that Christian conservatives are as essential to any chance of a GOP candidate winning as black voters are indispensable to a successful Democrat candidate.

The socially liberal views of 'America's Mayor' certainly haven't hauled him below the water yet.  He's the national frontrunner and is competitive in socially conservative states such as South Carolina.  He may be doing well among social conservatives because of the high priority they attach to the war on terror.  All GOP voters put the war in Iraq as their top issue (31%) and 17% choose terrorism and security.  Only 7% name abortion and 1% name gay marriage.   

The Republican Party cannot afford to elevate suspicion of homosexuality into a defining feature of its identity.  The nation that has laughed at Will & Grace and filled cinemas showing Brokeback Mountain is changing fast.  Twenty years ago there was a 51% to 42% majority in favour of a right to fire homosexual teachers.  Now 66% to 28% disagree with such a right.  A nation that was once split on whether AIDS was a punishment for sexual immorality is now 72% to 23% in disagreement with the contention.

In the 21 May edition of the left-leaning New Republic, Thomas B Edsall wonders if Giuliani is best able to lead the Republican Party into this new era of public opinion and whether a wider 'Giulianism' represents the future of the Republican party.  His no-nonsense, pro-cop, anti-tax positions won him widespread support amongst lower and middle income voters in New York.  Some GOP strategists hope that this same worldview might lure Reagan Democrats back to the Republican coalition.  Unlike many other social liberals within the Republican party, Giuliani is a hardliner on other issues of importance to the Republican base.  In addition to a hawkish approach to Iraq (he has said that Bush-Rumsfeld deployed far too few troops) he is a tax cutter, a fiscal conservative and very tough on crime.  His record in New York confirms that these are longstanding positions.  His time in New York politics also show him to be a polariser, writes Edsall.  He doesn't know how to play softball.  Edsall predicts that he will use the same tough rhetoric against terrorists that he used against criminals while he was Mayor.  He has already accused Democrats of waving the white flag on defence and of wanting to return to the defensive stance of pre-9/11.  These techniques will help rally the Republican base behind him - particularly if Hillary Clinton is the Democrat candidate.  The latest polling suggests that her lead over Barack Obama is widening.

Post 9/11 hawkishness may now be the glue holding the Republican coalition together but Giuliani cannot afford to insult social conservatives.  A socially conservative running mate like Sam Brownback, opposition to gay marriage and support for Supreme Court appointments like Alito, Roberts, Scalia and Thomas will be necessary commitments from Giuliani if he is to emerge as the Republican nominee and avoid a third party candidate from the Christian right.