Bloomberg candidacy may hurt GOP most

A new Newsweek poll on the 2008 contest suggests that Mike Bloomberg might hurt the GOP candidate more than the Democrat.  If 'Mayor Mike' runs the Clinton lead over Giuliani in a two horse race of 7% (51%-44%) becomes a 9% lead (46%-37%-11%).  Clinton and Giuliani both lead their fields in the Newsweek survey.

Comments

[Simon Newman]

Bloomberg would obviously hurt Guiliani, but would he hurt Thompson? I doubt it.

In any case the idea that the campaign will be 2 centrist New York Mayors (Bloomberg, Giuliani) vs a centrist New York Senator (Clinton) seems a bit unlikely.

[JF]

a centrist New York Senator (Clinton)

An interesting assertion. What makes you believe she is centrist?

[Cato]

JF, "centrist" is Democrat-speak for anybody who agrees with Democrat positions on social issues, but isn't a hard-line Marxist.

[Simon Newman]

Clinton is presenting herself as centrist; ie on the moderate wing of the Democratic party.

[Anthony (Los Angeles)]

Bloomberg is a John Anderson-like character. I suspect, as people get to know him more, that he'll draw more from Democrats, especially if Hillary is the nominee, since she has amazingly high negatives (people who say in polls they will never vote for her).

[JF]

Simon Newman, she may be presenting herself as such, but that doesn't mean you have to agree with it. Since you've chosen to label her a centrist, what position(s) has she taken that you feel are centrist? I'm just curious, not trying to trap you here.

[Frogg]

Newsweek isn't exactly the most trustworthy for polling solicitations. Here's the flaws that stick out to me:

1. The poll is done with "adults"; not likely voters (indeed, not even registered voters (included non citizens)

2. The poll showed that even red states would vote for the Democrat in almost every instance over the Republican. Not likely.

3. They greatly oversampled Democrats (422 registered Democrats and Dem. leaners, 324 registered Republicans and Rep. leaners.) which always gives Dem leaning results.

4. The poll, itself, showed that not very many people even know anything about Bloomberg.

The polling results would be terribly skewed in the Dems favor because of that.

There has been a lot of political analysis on this issue and it is overwhelmingly believed that Bloomberg hurts the Dems (same for Nader if he also runs).

BTW - Hillary is liberal (not a centrist). But, Obama and Edwards are both more liberal than Hillary by far. Richardson is actually probably the most moderate Dem running.

[Frogg]

Ahhhhh....now I get it. Bloomberg hopes to run on the Unity08 ticket:

http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_172175637.html

He'll be the Independent (who is actually a Dem) and his running mate will probably be a Dem too.

I don't think the Unity08 idea will go anywhere or garner much support, either.

http://www.unity08.com/

[Frogg]

Bloomberg, himself, thinks he would be a spoiler for Demcorats (and, says he won't run on third party ticket unless he thinks he can win):

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"Mr. Bloomberg was described as conflicted about a national run, intrigued by the possibility of winning the presidency but telling friends that he would not run unless he was certain that he could win. And he did not want to go down in history as a spoiler who contributed to the defeat of a Democrat like Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, he has told friends."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/us/politics/21bloomberg.html?_r=3&ref=politics&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
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[Simon Newman]

JF - I personally think many of Clinton's views are well to the left of those of the average American. Happy? :)

[JF]

Simon Newman, I'm happy. For a minute there, I thought we had lost you to the dark side.

[Steevo]

"Newsweek isn't exactly the most trustworthy for polling solicitations. Here's the flaws that stick out to me."

Indeed. From their readership to their questions. Basically a Left/Lib rag who manage once in a while to produce something mainstream.

[webstar]

something to chat about today but we still have a long way to the vote, everything will change by then

[Andrew Ian Dodge]

Bloomberg might hurt Guliani a bit but I think he is far more likely to hurt Dems than Republicans.