The ‘Big-Mo’ is with Mitt Romney!

Tim Aker, Grassroots Co-ordinator for the British TaxPayers' Alliance, believes Romney is the man with the momentum.

If you throw enough money at something, will the problem go away?  It will if you’re Willard Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts and someone who is, clearly, the front runner for the Republican Presidential nomination.  The momentum is with Mitt Romney – and it could carry him through the primaries to the White House.

Look how far he’s come.  Romney’s campaign flagged at the outset.  His polling was risible – matched by his poor national standing.  Videos flooded YouTube with Romney’s sound-bites supporting abortion and extending gay rights.  Soon the self-appointed champion of social conservatism faced the ire of leading social conservatives horrified that he tried to out-liberal Ted Kennedy in his 1994 Senate race.  Pundits immediately coined the phrase ‘Mitt-flop’ and conservative pressure groups set out to demonize him as a liberal, a RINO (Republican in name only).

Yet after three debates, millions of dollars spent and a flood of polls, Romney is climbing.  Not only that, he has soared in the early primary states.  Recent polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah and Michigan has Romney leading by 10% on average.  While his national polling may only hover above 10%, leading in the early primary states sets him up for surviving well into Super Tuesday.  Remember, most commentators say there are three tickets out of Iowa and only two out of New Hampshire.  Romney leads impressively in both.

So how has this turn around in fortunes come about?

The first is organisation and money.  Both reinforce the other. Outstripping his rivals, his first quarter takings of over $20million have been put – mostly – to developing a meticulous grassroots organisation that is second to none, dedicated to counter the ‘Mitt-flop’ accusations spiralling out, almost daily, from YouTube.

His website is by far the best. He walks onto the screen and talks to you, focusing on funding and organisational issues supporters can help with!    

He won the Conservative Political Action Conferencse's straw poll by getting his supporters to the event, a feat you can’t do without money, organisation and followers.   

In the 24 hours after the first televised Republican debate, his netroots campaign attempted to sign up 24,000 new supporters in 24 hours through the ‘Sign up America’ drive.  They succeeded!   

His strategy to combat accusations of East Coast liberalism and promote his economic and socially conservative credentials at the grassroots level has paid off.  With added enthusiasm from a youth wing (his main Facebook group – of which there are many dedicated to the Romney campaign – has over 4,600 members) Team Mitt has pounded the streets to downplay the attacks and promote his agenda.  Having your neighbours, friends and colleagues explaining to you why Mitt Romney should be president works so much better than a 30 second TV advert few take seriously.  Romney’s organisation is on the ground, it’s communicating directly with people and it is working.

Looking like a President also helps, especially when you’re promoting a conservatism hit hard by last November’s mid-term elections.  Romney’s campaign broadcasts, so far, have focused on his outsider status in order to distance him from the corruption and incompetence associated with Congressional Republicans.  As a businessman he amassed a personal fortune well over $300million.  As a competent strategist, he ran the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics – made all the more difficult coming just months after the September 11th attacks on the US.  If there’s one thing Republicans adore more than sound principles, it’s competence.   

Finally, as a politician, conservatives are beginning to rally to him.

Romney has played on his ideological change, using it as a platform to explain his ‘conversion’ to social conservatism.  John Kerry’s presidential bid faltered amidst accusations over his flip-flopping on the war.  Romney learned from that.  He’s not backtracking like Kerry did, instead using it to his advantage.   

On abortion and life issues he states how the radicalism of the humanist-scientific community in showing little regard for human life ‘converted’ him to the pro-life cause.  He knew then that he couldn’t support an agenda that treated human life with such contempt and has been a passionate promoter of pro-life issues, all featuring prominently in his stump speeches.  On issues of nationhood, he’s stood against the McCain-Kennedy illegal immigrant amnesty bill and promoted English as the national language.  In every debate, Romney is not afraid to say he was wrong and is now coming down on the side of conservatism.

Social conservatives are taking to this conversion.  He is a man of faith.  Mormonism isn’t a factor to people who put the implementation of conservative policy ahead of a man’s private beliefs.  One of the great oddities espoused from know-it-all pundits is that they expect evangelicals not to embrace a convert.  Of course they’ll embrace a convert to their principles.  Ronald Reagan was adored by the Moral Majority despite signing into law one of the most liberal abortion laws in Californian history when he was Governor.  Cynical or not, change is welcome and is winning over the evangelical, socially conservative movement.

Romney’s organisation, fundraising and ideological entrenchment are working.  With over 6 months to go until the first primaries, he still has his work cut out.  But when he’s scared away John McCain and Rudy Giuliani from the Ames Straw Poll in Iowa this August, you know you have a contender for the Presidency that has to be taken seriously.

Comments

[TeaK]

Mitt had a very poor showing at the GOP straw poll in Linn County. He got less than 5% despite pouring a lot of money into Iowa lately. Sure, it's just a county poll, but the 2nd largest county in Iowa.

[JF]

Tim, thanks for the article. As a Mitt Romney supporter, I appreciate the focus on his strengths.

That said, I'm not prepared to call him the front-runner. The growing attacks on his Mormonism and the entry of Fred Thompson into the race have stalled his rise in the polls. I believe he'll make a good showing in the race, and his strategy to use Iowa and New Hampshire to slingshot his way to the nomination seems sound given his position, but look for vicious attacks to begin in the second half of the year. Whether or not he can survive such attacks remains to be seen, given the success of negative attack ads in previous campaigns.

On the other hand, look for him to further distance himself from his rivals when the 2Q fundraising numbers are announced.

[Adam]

Don't fall into the trap of overstating Romney's strengths. Both Giuliani and McCain are bypassing Iowa and New Hampshire, which probably goes a long way to explaining Romney's good polling there.

[Praguetory]

Interesting article. Thanks for the useful background info you have included. What about Ron Paul?

[Tim Aker]

Thanks for your comments.

Adam - Giuliani and McCain aren't competing in Iowa becayse they know they can't win there.

Praguetory - Ron Paul has good ideas but comes across as mad. The dyed-in-the-wool libertarian constitutionalists support him and he has a big following, but he just has something about his character whereby everything that's wrong with America seems to be some sort of conspiracy theory. He'll stay til the end but won't even come close to winning a state.

[JF]

Adam, you've confused the sequence. Giuliani and McCain withdrew from Iowa after Romney's sustained high polling numbers scared them away, not the reverse. Similarly, Romney's high New Hampshire polling numbers are deterring Giuliani from seriously competing there, even though if Giuliani had the courage to fight it out, he might win it. This is a strange choice, as a Giuliani win in NH would immediately end Romney's campaign.

[Davod]

I started worrying about Romney after I discovered his health care plan involved pushing a large number of possible state recipients into the Federal system. Not a good model for National healthcare reform. Where do you send the overflow, Canada.

[JF]

Davod, can you provide the link for that? I don't recall reading that and would be interested in more information.

[bundyfan]

The Mormon thing is a little strange to let go of but I like what Romney stands for. And hey, better a Mormon than some damned pinko.

[Steevo]

Here's my take on your take Tim. Romney is a clever manipulator... and rich. A smart organizer and opportunist who will say and do what's necessary, according to the... pulse? Or maybe I've just missed something here and you believe he is truly genuine, sincere... a man of his word :-)

I am curious, if you care to response who do you like now, and why? You must have an opinion based on your own values?

[JF]

Steevo, you clearly believe Romney is a liar. Where has he made a promise in a campaign that he hasn't kept?

[Steevo]

JF you are jumping to one big conslusion. If you can't accept that too bad.

I addressed Tim on my take of his take. I would like him to respond.

[JF]

Steevo, one doesn't lightly toss out words like "manipulator," without substantiation. It appears you can't, but I can respect that you don't want to engage on this.

[Steevo]

Baloney. You have no clue of my intention for writing that post. So "manipulator" pricks your thin skin. I have no respect for you to to explain in your typical mode: arrogant and presumptive. Too bad if people here are not gonna see this nomination process eye to eye with you. Get over yourself, you're a fool here.

I'll respond to Tim.

[JF]

Steevo, I'll let you take a valium and give it time to take effect before I respond.

[Steevo]

You're lost and your ego is making you an idiot.

[JF]

I see it still hasn't taken effect yet.. I'll wait some more, then. Just let me know when you're ready.

[Steevo]

LOL ready for what?

[Mike]

Romney's hurdle is that his legitmate weakness (the abortion flip-flop) has been dishonestly exploited by his foes.

He never flipped on the issue of gay rights. He stood up for "gay rights" back in 1994 but never advocated gay marriage. It was the same consistent position held by liberals and conservatives alike in the 1990s. Even President Clinton signed DOMA and no one accused him of opposing gay rights.

Now that Romney opposes gay marriage in 2007, the media, the Democrats, and John McCain accuse Romney of flipping on the issue because he supported "gay rights" in 1994. The problem is that "gay rights" never meant "gay marriage." Romney was consistent.

However, since Romney did flip on abortion, the false charge on the gay marriage issue gains instant credibility. Romney's playing it right so far though.

For the record, I'm a currently undecided Republican, though I will not support Rudy or McCain in the primary.

[Al Gunn]

I'd love to hear more about Ron Paul, if there are any of his supporters in the house.

And here's a question for all those Republican supporting Tories. Who would be the Democrat we'd most like/be least put out to see win and why?

[Steevo]

Yeah well put Mike and pertinent points. About McCain I have to say his willingness to go for a low blow has turned me off for a long time, along with a deserved attitude. I've become increasingly impressed with Romney. I tend to forgive a little cockiness because he seems readily accessible. And along with Thompson he's the most conservative among the front runners. But Rudy is still good :-)

[Mike]

I'd happily support Rudy in the general election. Probably McCain too though I'd be holding my nose big time!

[mike]

no "JF" Romney's numbers were high before they left. Why do you think they left?

[S. Baker]

Well I am a little disappointed in Romney's flip flop on abortion, however with that said not enough to see Billary in the white house!

[Frogg]

For a list of the top ten issues Romney sees facing America, you can read an article here:

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060711/OPINION01/607110364/1035/OPINION

Whether you believe in what Romney says or not, he has been pretty good about keeping his campaign promises.

The think I like most about Romney is that he is easily communicates the conservative ideas and is very persuasive in doing so. He also has great organization skills and is a "can do" person.

I haven't made my mind up yet either; and, I could easily support any of the top tier candidates (except McCain). It should be noted that the poll numbers for two candidates have been steadily going in the right direction (while the rest have made a downward turn). Those two are Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

Speaking of Fred....

the Dems are so afraid of him they have started an attack on him even though he hasn't even announced he is running yet...

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/010347.php