US News & World Report has a cover feature this week which identifies the five factors that purportedly make the 2008 race for the White House "an election like no other":
The changed primary process: historically the primary process - where registered party members in states vote for their preferred nominee - has been an extended affair. It begins with votes in Iowa and then New Hampshire and the primary votes get gradually bigger and faster thereafter. The virtue of this timetable was that insurgent candidates without big money could earn traction through low-budget, door-to-door canvassing in the small states and then become competitive against establishment candidates in subsequent states. There'll be much less opportunity for that in this primary cycle. Florida, a state rich in electoral college votes, decides its nominees on 29 January 2008 - just seven days after New Hampshire. Then there's the 'megaprimary' one week later when California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and other big states vote. Only candidates who are by then able to afford a lot of TV, radio and direct mail advertising are likely to prosper.
The candidates: 2008 is the first primary contest for fifty years with no incumbent President or Vice President participating. That means the race is wide open and the candidates coming forward are often 'firsts'. Hillary Clinton would be the Oval office's first woman occupant. Obama the White House's first black resident. Mitt Romney would be the first Mormon Commander-in-Chief. The tanking John McCain would be the oldest President elected. Giuliani - the current GOP frontrunner - would be the most socially liberal nominee for his party in more than a generation. If the GOP and Democrat candidates aren't intriguing enough for you, there is the possibility of an independent candidacy from New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg. He hopes to feed on the fact that 67% of voters tell pollsters that they are unhappy with the current two party system.
Demographic changes. Florida and Ohio have been the must win swing states for both parties in the last two elections but the Democrats see hope in states where the GOP has traditionally been strong. Virginia, for example, which voted for George W Bush twice, has elected a Democrat Governor and Senator in recent years. The GOP fear that the loss of Virginia would be the beginning of the reversal of the so-successful 'southern strategy' that Richard Nixon launched in 1968. Democrat Chair Howard Dean is most hopeful about the rapidly growing Rocky Mountain region. A big increase in Democrat-leaning Latino voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada mean that a total of 29 electoral votes could change from Republican red to Democrat blue.
The internet. Nobody really understands the ways in which the internet might be important for the election but nearly everyone agrees that the Democrats are generating more enthusiasm from the internet than the Republicans (see the middle column of Facebook/ MySpace/ YouTube stats on TechPresident) and are also raising much more money via the medium - particularly Barack Obama. If TalkRadio has been a right-wing medium, the internet in America - in marked contrast to the UK - is a largely left-wing phenomenon.
The issues. The fifth factor that makes 2008 a 'wildcard election' for US News and World Report is the changing kaleidoscope of issues. A message of hope and economic factors lifted Bill Clinton to the Presidency and kept him there. Security issues and moral questions ensured re-election for Bush. Immigration and Iraq might be the decisive factors in 2008. McCain's support for the White House's troops surge - which John Edwards was quick to dub the 'McCain doctrine' - and for the President's immigration reform package have seen his candidacy on the brink of complete collapse. He has had to lay off most of his key campaign operatives and his campaign is almost bankrupt. If most issues that are moving up the salience league favour the Democrats there is one issue that could give Giuliani a big boost; crime. For reasons that are not entirely clear crime is growing in a lot of US cities. Mr Zero Tolerance might benefit from that issue's prominence.
Personally I don't know why we Americans haven't consolidated the primary schedule into a national primary election. Of course New Hampshire and Iowa guard their early influence jealously, but this whole protracted affair is getting out of hand. Shall we begin the 2012 election season in 2008? I've heard people (jokingly I hope) already have begun their campaigns for 2016. If this progression continues we'll really have to consider joining the UK just for your shorter election season.
Mike Bloomberg has little more chance of becoming president than Ron Paul. If he'd hurt Blue or Red more is subject to debate. Probably depends on who gets the nominations.
The change in demographics is a result of the DNC's long term strategy to shift the electorate left by allowing non-citizens to vote- even if it means letting them to it illegally. That scheme is going to yield bitter fruit, mark my words.
The internet is the territory of the young. Who, by the way, are statistically the least likely to vote. Live it up Obama because it's not going to last.
The changing issues thing is a direct result of such an extended election season. They've got to keep saying something to keep our attention for two whole years and they can't do that with the same old issue every week. Though it does seem to me that Blue team has been much more successful on setting the issues than the Reds. If this keeps up we'll be speaking Farsi or Spannish in no time.
Posted by: Da Coyote | July 18, 2007 at 09:41 AM
'Presential'?
You may want to check the graphic linking here from conservativehome.
Posted by: Cardinal Pirelli | July 18, 2007 at 10:59 AM
All the talk is of Obama but its pretty obvious that he isn't presidential material. I have to admit that I love Hillary Clinton's fighting spirit. She is very tough. Maybe too tough. Of course she knows the ropes too, this is her third presidential run-in. However John Edwards is my bet to get the Democratic nomination. Edwards has great communication skills and a very sharp mind.
The Republicans look certain to go with Giuliani, he can certainly soak up Democratic votes. John McCain looks to be a spend force. He will be seen as too passionate about seeing out the course in Iraq. There is no doubt aboy McCain's sincerity. I remember seeing footage of John McCain after the senate had watched film of the beheading of Nicholas Berg and McCain really looked hurt and angry by what he had just seen. Circumstances are just not in McCains favour.
Posted by: Tony Makara | July 18, 2007 at 12:50 PM
Tony I think you are wrong on both counts. Edwards has no chance of getting the nod for a myriad of reasons. His whole £500 haircut episode and private jet lifestyle just won't cut it with the base.
As far as the Republicans go I don't believe Guiliani is a foregone conclusion for the nomination. Its a long way out and one heavy hitter has failed to join. His is doing very well in the polls but has yet to announce and by that I mean Fred Thompson.
Bloomberg and Nader running might change the landscape as well. There is a hint of wobble between the far-left/anti-war types and Democrats. After all sensible Democrats will not be pleased to see Cincy Sheehan running against Nancy Pelosi.
Every Presidential election is like no other...they are all unique in their own special ways.
Posted by: Andrew Ian Dodge | July 18, 2007 at 02:53 PM
Pity there isn't a rich, elderly, black, female, Mormon, socially liberal, independent candidate. You could have saved yourself a lot of time & effort!
Do you not get fatigued by seemingly interminable campaigning for next election? I get exhaustion as an ordinary voter in the UK's style of electioneering every so often.
Posted by: Ken Stevens | July 18, 2007 at 02:54 PM
Ken Stevens: Yes! Absolutely.
Tony Makara: I agree with Mr. Dodge. Fred Thompson has a very good chance of taking the nomination.
Andrew Ian Dodge: I can't wait to see Cindy Sheehan take on Nancy Pelosi. I get warm and fuzzy inside just thinking about it.
Posted by: Da Coyote | July 18, 2007 at 03:36 PM
Cant agree on Fred getting the nom. I think Rudy will get that spot. Couldnt agree more about san fran nan and st cindy. Please let it happen.
Posted by: webstar | July 18, 2007 at 05:46 PM
@Ken Stevens,
You have no idea how sick and tired we are of all of these people already. I guess they don't realize how much enthusiasm is squashed by the time the election rolls around. The number of people who vote in this country is shamefully small, and I believe fatigue is the main reason.
I would vote for Duncan Hunter given the choice, but he will be eliminated early.
Posted by: Ami | July 19, 2007 at 01:14 AM
I don't see anything different about this election than any others except that it just started too damn early.
I think Hillary will get the Dem nomination.
I'm a moderate conservative and would no way, no day vote for her.
I like and admire both Guliani and Thompson (for different reasons). It will be a hard choice for me. I also like Romney, Hunter, and Huckabee.
I actually think the Vice Presidential picks of both primary winners may be the most interesting thing of the elections.
Posted by: Frogg | July 19, 2007 at 07:20 AM
There is no doubt in my mind that John Edwards is the best communicator. I saw him outshine John Kerry several times during the last election. Edwards is very close to the union movement though, do people in America see that as a problem? On the subject of Bloomberg and Nader I can't see them having too much of an impact. I'm really looking forward to the election next year. Last time around I listened to the election on Air America and it was facinating to hear how the tone darkened by the hour. I'm not sure which station I will listen to this time, any suggestions from our frieds stateside?
Posted by: Tony Makara | July 19, 2007 at 07:43 PM
John Edwards doesn't have a chance. The guy is seen as a total clown. Nobody over here is going to get over the $400 haircut and his $50,000 speeches on "poverty." He really is a joke.
The best ticket for the GOP will be a Guliani and (God willing) a Secretary Rice one.
Posted by: bundyfan | July 19, 2007 at 10:17 PM
Tony Makara -
John Edwards is seen as a vacuous boob by all but the far left. (And, nobody but the far left listens to Air America. They filed for bankruptcy once. I believe they are in receivership now.) Watch CNN for left of center coverage; Fox for right of center coverage.
Posted by: Mary Fernandez | July 19, 2007 at 11:27 PM
Tony,
John Edwards is a "professional presidential candidate." He has been running for the presidency since 1998, and you are quite right he has the gift of gab. I believe that he only took the second spot on Kerry's ticket because he saw it as a stepping stone to what he believes is his destiny much as he did with his one term in the Senate. There are only two people who take John Edwards very seriously, one is Elizabeth Edwards and the other one is her husband.
You also have to take into consideration that a great many people, either consciously or not, see him as a "loser." He was part of a losing ticket in 2004, and it is usually a stigmatization that is difficult to overcome in American politics. I think that the last one to run and lose, and then run and win, was Richard Nixon. Under no circumstances do I see Edwards as anyone's choice for VP.
I listen to talk radio on my computer at WLS 890 AM Chicago Talk Station, WABC 770 NYC or if I am really desperate WFLA 970 or WFLA 540. All channels carry political talk radio and probably would give election results. There is no force on earth that could induce me to listen to Air America. LOL!
Posted by: Ami | July 20, 2007 at 02:58 AM
Giuliani is a social liberal. That will lose him the Christian conservative vote.
Keep an eye on Tom Tancredo. He's got the guts and the right ideas about immigration and national security. He was the only GOP candidate who showed up at the NAACP convention and impressed them with his stance on immigration.
"This is our culture; fight for it. This is our flag; pick it up. This is our country; take it back."
Tancredo 2008!
Posted by: atheling | July 20, 2007 at 05:09 PM
There is a lot of bad press for John Edwards here. As regards Air America it seems they are under new ownership with a verbal endorsment from Bill Clinton.
The Air America shows that I listen to are Randi Rhodes and Ring of Fire with Robert Kennedy Jnr and Mike Papantonio. My politics are right-wing but I enjoy listening to hard-hitting polemic of any kind.
I love listening to the American stations, but just wish C-SPAN wouldnt let so many bigots get onto Washington Journal. Ive listened to Rush a lot on WTIC Connecticut ans Michael Medved always makes me smile on KTRO Oregon. Actually I remember Michael Medved in the early 1980s presenting a UK TV show on the worst movies of all time. The problem with Medved is you can never be sure whether he is kidding or not.
Posted by: Tony Makara | July 20, 2007 at 05:55 PM
I haven't watched C-Span in many years so I would be interested in knowing who are the bigots they are allowing on the air. If you can, would you please list some names?
Posted by: Ami | July 20, 2007 at 07:50 PM
Ami, I'm refering to some of the callers on Washington Journal and not any of the studio guests. I've heard people coming on the air with the express purpose of making some form of abusive comment. Of course they are soon cut off but I'm surprised that there isn't a better way to control such calls. I like C-SPAN and don't want to see the station spoiled by idiots.
Posted by: Tony Makara | July 20, 2007 at 08:10 PM
Tony, what are those callers to C-SPAN saying that you regard as bigoted? I haven't watched C-SPAN in years (no TV cable), so haven't seen Washington Journal in a while.
Posted by: mamapajamas | July 20, 2007 at 09:59 PM
Tony:
Stop it. You sound like, and probably are, a shill for Edwards. With regards to your 5:55 pm post: You sound like a left wing activist looking to offset your previous shilling with a few platitudes to the right.
Posted by: davod | July 22, 2007 at 01:38 PM
Tony,
I stopped watching c-span when they instituted the "sequence of callers" system. There was a line for republicans, a line for democrats, and a line for "others." The "others" were usually democrats calling themselves "independents" who would start their comment with "I hate democrats, but those republicans are really evil." The "independent" caller would then launch into a tirade against republicans and republican policies. It became two against one like so much of what already appears on network TV news shows.
Unfortunately, c-span programming has lost so much of its spontaneity and they have become boring and monotonous. I also would agree that at least two out of every three callers to c-span are probably bigots. :O)
Posted by: Ami | July 22, 2007 at 08:19 PM
Ami, I quite agree with your comments about Washington Journal. The way they segregate calls has just led to bickering and point scoring rather than informed debate. Many of the callers these days tend to be ghettoized politically and completely unopen to any sort of consensus.
The question of the bigotry on Washington Journal is really centred on some of the moronic callers that they allow onto the show. Some of these are so bad they could have come straight from 'Coast to coast'.
As for those who think I'm a left-wing activist, well all I can say is 'not so'. My views are right-of-centre but that doesn't mean that I don't enjoy listening to other shades of political opinion. I'm certainly not an advocate of John Edwards but I do recognise that Edwards is a lot smarter than most people on the right think.
Posted by: Tony Makara | July 22, 2007 at 09:10 PM
"Edwards is a lot smarter than most people on the right think."
Actually, most people are a lot smarter than what John Edwards thinks.
Posted by: atheling | July 22, 2007 at 09:48 PM
I love the loons who call into C-SPAN! Watching Brian Lamb and the guests keep a straight face is hillarious and the loons discredit themselves. Every once in a while we need to be reminded people like that are really out there.
Posted by: Mary Fernandez | July 23, 2007 at 11:50 PM
"For reasons that are not entirely clear crime is growing in a lot of US cities"
How about mass immigration on a level unknown in the modern age?
Posted by: Michael Blindomax | July 24, 2007 at 12:24 AM
Tony, let me repeat my request. This is an honest request for information. I got ticked off at my cable provider YEARS ago and pulled the plug on them, so I haven't seen Washington Journal in ages.
What are the callers saying that bothers you, that you consider bigoted?
Posted by: mamapajamas | July 24, 2007 at 12:37 AM