Some cavalier predictions for November 2008

The Daily Telegraph's Toby Harnden has made some predictions for 2008.  You can read them here.

Toby has inspired me to make my own predictions (they are not necessarily preferences!):

1. Democrat nominee: Hillary Clinton
2. Democrat running mate: Bill Richardson
3. Republican nominee: Rudy Giuliani
4. GOP running mate: Tim Pawlenty
5. Third party candidate?: Just one.  An anti-Giuliani social conservative
6. Ultimate winner: Hillary Clinton
7. Senate: Four Democrat gains
8. House: Twelve Democrat gains
9. Number one issue identified by the exit polls: Security
10. How many troops in Iraq at time of election: 115,000

I know it's very early in the cycle but what do you think?

Comments

[Edward]

An anti-Giuliani candidate? I thought conservatives didn't like Hillary Rodham?

[Ashton]

They may despise Hilldog, but some still might not be happy with a liberal Republican like Giuliani and want another choice, even though it would actually make it worse for themselves

[Ashton]

As for Pawlenty, maybe someone a bit more "conservative" for the GOP running mate? I see little electoral advantage having a close ally of McCain, seen as somewhat of a laughing stock now, on the ticket.

Although unlikely, Condoleeza Rice would definately be the right kind of person in my opinion. Conservative enough to get out Republicans not convinced by Giuliani, and also being the first woman AND black person to hold high national office.

[Peter Coe]

Rudi Giuliani can't win the nomination: it will be Mitt Romney (likely) or Fred Thompson (who I personally think will implode). And there's no way, whether it's Giuliani or Romney (or anyone really) they pick Pawlenty for Veep for three reasons:

1. He doesn't put Minnesota in play so there's no political advantage - MN is swinging back heavily into the Blue column;

2. Tim Pawlenty's been damaged by the bridge collapse (and only sneaked back to re-election in 06 before that happened);

3. Neither Romney nor Giuliani could pick another northern relatively moderate governor. Either of these two HAS to pick a southern or western social conservative: the GOP would (probably literally) riot if the majority of its base was excluded from the ticket.

Given the excellent way he's presenting himself, I'd say Mike Huckabee is far more likely to be VP candidate - and unlike Tim Pawlenty, he may well be able to put his home state in the GOP column (which would also embarrass Hillary Clinton, it being Arkansas).

On the Senate, think you're being optimistic: Dems will gain Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, Colorado, Maine and Nebraska (if Bob Kerrey runs) - with an outside shot at Kentucky and Oklahoma.

Still not convinced Hillary actually wins: think she'll come third in Iowa, Obama will win South Carolina and who, frankly, cares about Nevada: that will enable Obama to get some momentum into Hew Hampshire, which Clinton probably wins, but unconvincingly with a strong second place for Obama.

There follows a swathe of endorsements - if he's smart, Obama breaks precedent and announces who his VP candidate will be if he wins (that's either Mark Warner or Evan Bayh), gets a further bounce as a result of that, and with his cash advantage over Clinton, and the damage done by her less than auspicious start she's toast!

And if Obama wins the nomination, I think we might be looking at a Dem electoral college landslide on a scale similar to Johnson's.

[Paul]

A very comprehensive analysis Peter! Watching the Fox News debate last night the only Republican I have confidence in is Senator McCain, his conclusions on Iraq and Iran are extremely worrying but I fear a very realistic interpretation of events. He would be my choice but it seems Mitt Romney is likely to take the nomination. He reminds me of Kerry however, wooden, offering no ideas and if look at his past record a flip-flopper! I am interested if not a bit alarmed about the possibility of 115,000 dead by next November?????

[Edward]

I agree with Peter on veep candidates, particularly Huckabee, but think he's too pessimistic on Giuliani. That said Giuliani has to be wary of any momentum Romney would pick up in early primaries to carry him through. He's got to be hoping that a lead or level-pegging against Clinton/Obama nationally swings primary voters in Iowa/NH toward him at the death on electability grounds.

[Tim Montgomerie]

I'm personally pro-Giuliani Edward - I'm just thinking the religious right might challenge him.

Isn't anyone going to put together their own lists?

[malcolm]

Wish I could Tim but don't know enough about the intricacies of the congressional elections.
Obviously very much hope that you're wrong about Clinton winning the presidency.I thought the Americans will have tired of seeing the same famillies dominating their presidency.

[atheling]

The predictions don't make sense.

If the number one issue at the exit polls is security then the Democrats will not win. Even the "Dhimmicrats" know that they are weak, and are perceived as weak, when it comes to national security.

[Peter Coe]

Malcolm, I think your point about Hillary is spot on, and one of her three critical weaknesses:

The first, as you say, is America tiring of dynastic politics;

The second is that she's too polarising - and she's not been able to mitigate that despite a so-far faultless campaign (and indeed public posture since she was elected to the Senate);

The third is that she's alienating the Democrat base by refusing to concede that she was wrong to support the invasion of Iraq.

So she runs the risk of falling between two stools: she's irked the lefties because of Iraq, and she turns off the independents and soft Republicans because to them she's too liberal!

The ONLY way Clinton wins the Dem nomination (and indeed the only reason she's ahead in the polls for the primaries) is by locking up the women's vote. But are women really so tribal as to ultimately solely vote on the basis of gender?

[Andrew Ian Dodge]

Um about as wrong as you can be. Fred Thompson will get the nod with Romney as his VP (to molify the social conservatives). Obama will get it on the Dems side after a tough fight and then get trounced in the election. Probably pick a woman VP.

[Peter Coe]

Andrew - Romney's main difficulty at the moment is getting accepted by social conservatives concerned about his Mormonism, so to claim that his appointment would mollify them doesn't seem right to me.

And if you believe Romney is genuinely a social conservative, do you seriously believe he'd have won the governorship of Massachusetts twice (let alone chosen to live in the state for most of his life)?

[Paul]

Fred Thompson is far more of a social conservative than Mitt Romney so the idea that he would need to pick him as his VP to gain support form the Republican Right is wrong. Thompson has left it too late, he is by all accounts pretty lazy when it comes to campaigning and I would imagine the interest in him will fall drastically after a couple of weeks. The Democratic nomination is fascinating, Clinton is still favourite but John Edwards should not be discounted, he is banking on gaining some momentum from Iowa and is very popular with the unions and democratic bloggers!

[Steevo]

This is the kind of question that really brings some Brits out of the woodwork so to speak. Tell us Americans what its really about. Concerning your elections, as an American I never looked into to it to claim with any confidence to know the potential winners and why based on their stances with respect to the prevailing views and likely direction folks will vote. Even if I wanted to I don't think I could. I don't even know enough to make 'predictions' in the US at this point, which I think, is still considered early?

This is nothing personal Tim, just an observation. I admit the subject rather bores me until closer to crunch time. But keep in mind our presidency may well be determined by our 'undecided' in the last couple of days.

[Umbrella man]

My predictions:

Democrat nominee: Hillary Clinton
Democrat running mate: Barack Obama
Republican nominee: Rudy Giuliani
GOP running mate: Mike Huckabee
Third party candidate?: None
Ultimate winner: Clinton
Senate: 3 Democrat gains
House: 10 Democrat gains
Number one issue identified by the exit polls: Economy
How many troops in Iraq at time of election: 100,000

[Michael Davidson]

My predictions:

Democrat candidate: Hillary Clinton
Democrat Running-mate: Barack Obama
Republican candidate: Rudy Giuliani
Reoublican Running-mate: Mitt Romney
Overall winner: Hillary Clinton
Third party candidate: Nobody significant but possibly Bloomberg
Senate: 3-6 gains for Democrats
House: 4-10 gains for Democrats
Number one issue: Iraq
Troops in Iraq at election time: Pretty much the same as now.

[Anna]

Hello all. I am new to the forum although I visit the website frequently.

As Steevo noted it is too early to make predictions especially with Thompson finally jumping into the race.

Peter asked whether or not women would be so tribal at to vote for Shrillary soley on the basis of gender. The answer is a resounding "NO!". Her campaign managers claim that to be so, but it isn't true. They seem to thing that the feminist movement is alive and kicking and that we're all angry man-hating leftovers from the 60's like Hillary. In fact, the Democrats seem to represent tired, worn ideas, remants of the past and little else. Hillary could offer me all the money Norman Hsu gave her, and I still wouldn't give her my vote.

There are some old haradans that will vote for her, however most clear thinking people know that she could never have achieved much without clinging to Bill. In addition, she has such terrible memory lapses, forgets critical information and makes absured claims that she was mislead by Bush on the Iraq war vote and that she was "shocked" when Bill confessed his involvement with Monika. People who like to play the victim card are not presidential material.

There is also the matter of that voice, that ~voice~. Oy vey, can't listen to that screaching for four years.

On another note I think illegal immigration is going to be the hot topic along with all that transpires in Iraq during the next months. Voters of both parties are (and have been) angry about the number of illegals in the country. Any candidate who does not adequately address this problem is a fool.

[Denise]

Peter, regarding Hillary getting women's votes-not this chick! And I know a lot of women who can't stand her. I'm sure there are many women across the country who feel the same way. Those of us in my neck of the woods can't be the only ones. Any woman with any intelligence would not vote solely for that reason, although I'm sure there are some women out there who lack that intelligence.

[Denise]

Anna, you are so right on the issue of immigration. McCain loses on that one as far as I'm concerned.

[redsoxmike]

democrat nominee--hillary
democrat vp--mark warner (richardson promised secretary of state)
republican nominee--rudy giuliani
republican running mate--john thune
3rd party---ron paul--he peters out
senate---dems pick up CO, NH, Nebraska and North Carolina (dole is uninspiring).
House---dems pick up 4
Number 1 issue---executive experience
winner---Rudy
troops---10,000 less than now

[Yet Another Anon]

Democrat nominee: Wesley Clark
Democrat running mate: John Edwards
Republican nominee: John McCain
GOP running mate: Alan Keyes
Third party candidate?: Karen Kwiatkowski
Ultimate winner: John McCain
Senate: No change
House: No change
Number one issue identified by the exit polls: National Security
How many troops in Iraq at time of election: 120,000

[Ed Thomas]

So glad Andrew Ian Dodge popped up there with a contrary view- similar to mine.

I think that Thompson will win the Republican nomination. He is such a savvy fellow and he has no other motivations than that he thinks he can win and has a sense he can do things better than the rest.

I'm a little unsure, unlike Andrew, whether Obama will win over Hillary. I do think he has a good chance once Edwards steps aside.

On balance:

Thompson beats off Romney after Rudy shrivels away. Picks Gingrich as VP.

Hillary's professionalism and the nostalgia among Democrats for Clinton means she gets the nod. Picks Edwards as no2.

Thompson/Gingrich takes on Hillary/Edwards and Thompson/Gingrich show the old dogs know a hell of a lot of tricks to get what they want.

[atheling]

Problems with Thompson:

1. He just hired Spencer Abraham, a pan-Arab to manage his campaign. Abraham, though not a Muslim, is a Muslim arse licker of the highest degree. This is the kiss of death for Fred.

2. I just can't see his glamorous Hollywood mannequin wife in the White House. She lacks propriety.

[Josh A]

Dem Nomination: Hillary Clinton
VP: BIll Richardson
Rep Nomination: Rudy Guiliani
VP: Condileezza Rice
3rd Party: Probably no one, but if so, Ron Paul
Winner: Hillary/Richardson by a squeaker
Senate: Dems gain 6 seats
House: Dems gain 10 seats