All you need to know: 2nd January 2008

$17 PER VOTER HAS BEEN SPENT BY THE CANDIDATES IN IOWA

CNN: "Iowa's 2.3 million eligible voters have been bombarded with close to $40 million worth of political ads on television this cycle -- more than three times the amount spent there in 2004.  Sen. Barack Obama leads all candidates in TV ad spending during this election cycle.  That works out roughly to about $17 per voter, between $150 and $200 per expected caucus-goer, and nearly $500,000 per each of the state's 82 delegates in a contest that -- unlike 2004 -- is wide open on both sides of the aisle."

Watch the eve-of-poll videos on PlayPolitical.

Mike Huckabee lost $150,000 by pulling an attack ad against Romney.  Background news report here.

HILLARY 'NOBODY'S SECOND CHOICE' MAY COME THIRD IN IOWA

That's David Freddoso's suggestion on National Review: "At 30 percent, Hillary leads both Obama (22 percent) and Edwards (29 percent). Many other polls show a closer race, with all three in a statistical tie.  So if this poll is correct, Hillary will win, right? Wrong. The most relevant feature of the Democratic caucus, as opposed to the Republican one, is that it allows supporters of losing candidates to make a second choice. This is where Hillary is on course to fall short."  "Hillary Clinton is hardly anyone’s second choice for the Democratic nomination," noted Freddoso.

Toby Harnden wonders if we are seeing the end of the Clintons once and for all.

WILL TECHNOLOGY GIVE ROMNEY VICTORY OVER HUCKABEE?

Huckabee may have more support in opinion polls but does he have the infrastructure to get his vote out?  TownHall.com profiles Mitt Romney's hi-tech approach to voter turnout: "According to one senior Romney aide, last night the Romney campaign hosted a tele-townhall conference call for values voters in Iowa.  Approximately 20,000 households were called, and close to 5,000 households participated, I'm told... Considering that only about 75 to 80 thousand Iowans are expected to participate in the Republican caucus -- and that temperatures are very cold -- this seems like a wise way to campaign."

RON PAUL DUMPED FROM GOP DEBATE

CNN covers the news that Ron Paul has been dropped from a crucial Fox News debate, scheduled after Iowa but before New Hampshire.  The criteria for participation were set out by ABC:

"Republican and Democratic candidates must meet at least one of three benchmarks: place first through fourth in Iowa, poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major national surveys."

ARE CONSERVATIVE COURTS THE TOP BUSH LEGACY?

That's the suggestion of David Savage in today's Los Angeles Times: "After nearly seven years in the White House, President Bush has named 294 judges to the federal courts, giving Republican appointees a solid majority of the seats, including a 60%-to-40% edge over Democrats on the influential U.S. appeals courts.  The rightward shift on the federal bench is likely to prove a lasting legacy of the Bush presidency, since many of these judges -- including his two Supreme Court appointees -- may serve for two more decades."

George W Bush will also hope that the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan, major tax cuts and his faith-based initiative will also, over time, be judged kindly by historians.

Yesterday's All You Need To Know.

Comments

[Martin Wright]

No surprise that that Murdoch-owned Fox News is excluding Ron Paul from the TV debate. But I suspect that they'll have egg on their faces once the real results come in

[Malcolm Dunn]

$17 per voter.What a waste of money. I bet the turn out is still derisory.

[comstock]

Yes, Malcolm, I expect it will be. But the system used is crazy. As far as I can see, voters have to turn up at a fixed time (tough luck if you are working, and if you are serving in the military forget it) to a two hour meeting and then 'vote' in a public ballot by standing in the apropriate group on the floor.

When I was younger I thought of america as so modern and forward looking compared with stuffy old Britain, but this is a system which presumably is unchanged since the early days of the union

[comstock]

We were both wrong, Malcolm. Democratic turnout has nearly doubled since 2004.

[David]

What's really scary is that the Republicans appear to be changing into nothing but a Christian religious party. Apparently 6 out of 10 attendants described themselves as born again.

[Malcolm Dunn]

I wasn't thinking of the caucus vote Comstock (Republican caucus was also up a bit) I was thinking of the national vote in November.
Even though I work in advertising I strongly believe that most political advertising particularly the overtly negative stuff is a waste of money.I don't see any evidence at all that it encourages people to vote ,sometimes quite the opposite.

[Comstock]

I don't see any evidence at all that (political advertising)encourages people to vote

I agree, Malcolm. I guess the next question is whether it affects the party/candidate that those who *do* vote vote for IYSWIM.

What's really scary is that the Republicans appear to be changing into nothing but a Christian religious party. Apparently 6 out of 10 attendants described themselves as born again.

And I think that that will ultimately be their undoing come November. Even in America I don't think devout, regular church going christians are the majority.