OBAMA 10% AHEAD OF CLINTON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE (OR LEVEL-PEGGING?)
10% up says one poll splashed by this morning's Sunday Times. Another poll by CNN puts the candidates both on 33% in New Hampshire. Events are probably too fast moving to be captured by polls but are almost certainly heading Obama's way if you judge by attendance levels at his 'Granite State' events.
Senator Obama (D) is also now the markets' favourite to win the Democratic nomination.
Hillary Clinton (D) hit back in last night's Democrat debate. Watch her here. Gerry Baker fears, however, that she is not really answering the Obama challenge: "She did what she always does now in answer to the challenge that she does not represent enough change, by reeling off a list of things she has actually managed to do in Washington. It's an impressive list - children's health insurance, support for US troops - but as important and concrete as these things are they don't seem to match up to the much bigger, almost spiritual dimension of change that I think Obama represents."
Video: The Republican candidates discuss how to beat Obama. Mitt Romney (R) says to McCain (R) that the lesson of Iowa is that experience won't beat him and the Republicans need to choose a non-insider candidate like him.
GIULIANI SUPPORTER GEORGE WILL IS LATEST TO COME UNDER THE OBAMA SPELL
"Barack Obama, who might be mercifully closing the Clinton parenthesis in presidential history, is refreshingly cerebral amid this recrudescence of the paranoid style in American politics. He is the un-Edwards and un-Huckabee -- an adult aiming to reform the real world rather than an adolescent fantasizing mock-heroic "fights" against fictitious villains in a left-wing cartoon version of this country." - Posted on TownHall.com
[Mr Will uses much of his article to attack Mike Huckabee's alleged disrespect for the Republican coalition. Henry Olsen also worries about that in The Wall Street Journal. Olsen says that Huckabee is more like a European Christian Democrat; pro-life but also pro-government.]
And expect a lot more OBAMA = JFK comparisons like this from Newsweek's Eleanor Clift: "What Obama has is Kennedy's ability to inspire and to play the generation card. When Obama talks about "the fierce urgency of now" and warns against those counseling patience, he's dissing a return to the Clinton years, but he's also echoing JFK's Inaugural declaration."
PERHAPS THE NETROOTS AREN'T SO INFLUENTIAL AFTER ALL?
The New York Times' Opinionator believes that the left-wing blogosphere has never liked Barack Obama's uniting message but has been powerless to frustrate him. One commenter on the Opinionator's thread does point out that many blogs have been enthusiastic supporters of Senator Obama. Lesson for the mainstream media on both sides of the Atlantic: All blogs are not the same.
SOME QUICK LINKS
- Washington Wire on how the other GOP candidates ganged up on Romney during last night's New Hampshire Debate.
- Writing for The Sunday Times, Michael Barone notes a distinct lack of public policy discussion from any of the candidates. It's difficult to argue with him on that.
- Watch a one minute video of the Democrat and Republican candidates mingling together between New Hampshire debates.
The Huffington Post has written about how Clinton has sent a flyer to New Hampshire voters that misrepresents (or outright lies) about Obama's strong voting record in favour of a woman's right to choose. Clinton is going to be all about negative campaigning from here on in.
Posted by: DK | January 06, 2008 at 06:50 PM
Obama's chances are a bit oversold at the moment. Politics is very much a "What have you done for me lately" endeavour, I guess. Hilary is still the favourite for the Democratic nomiation in my book. We'll get a better view of the situation once the larger, more representative, polls get going.
Posted by: billm99uk | January 06, 2008 at 07:40 PM
The poll showing Obama with a 10 point lead is not consistent with several other polls taken during the same time showing a much tighter race (there are two polls showing Clinton ahead of Obama). RCP average of polls gives Obama a 3.4% lead.
But, Independents can vote in either primary. And, it appears they are flocking to the Dem primary in larger numbers this year.
In 2000 McCain was favored to win by 5% and won by 14% (probably due to the hidden Independent support). The same thing could happen in NH this time. My guess is that it favors Obama also. I only say that because there seems to be a small surge Obama's way. But, it is simply hard to say.
Posted by: Frogg, USA | January 06, 2008 at 09:29 PM
Acropolis Review has an interesting question about Al Gore's role in the whole process.
http://acropolisreview.com
Posted by: Jake | January 07, 2008 at 02:39 AM