Mitt Romney's Michigan victory

"Romney's Turn" concluded Drudge.  So, Romney wins Michigan (by nearly 10% - three times what was predicted by the polls) after McCain had won New Hampshire and Mike Huckabee had won Iowa.  The Republicans have no front-runner again.

Did Romney win Michigan because his father was its three-term Governor or because of his economic message?  Ross Douthat credits Romney with an admirable resilience:

"Winning Michigan after two consecutive tough defeats, in the teeth of a press corps that adores John McCain and despises him, and in a state that gave McCain an easy win over George W. Bush in 2000, suggests an impressive resilience - both in the man and in his campaign - that will serve him well in what looks like a long hard slog to the convention."

Andrew Sullivan thinks that a strong economic message might be Romney's best chance of seizing the GOP nomination:

"If Romney retools his campaign and presents himself as a moderate businessman able to bring better management to Washington, he finally has a message that could work. Of course, it's just the latest poll-tested cynical ploy. But it's working for Clinton! And she and Romney have one thing in common: two focus-grouped cynical dynastic holograms."

Fred Barnes agrees:

"Romney defeated John McCain because the economy is emerging as the overriding issue in the 2008 presidential race, and Romney's message on the subject is stronger than McCain's. And Romney is far more comfortable and persuasive in talking about the economy."

Rudy Giuliani is, of course, the other big victor.  Noone arrives in Florida with big momentum.  His late-state strategy that begins, as he has always hoped, with victory in the 'Sunshine state' may yet win him the nomination.

The next Republican primary is on Saturday, in South Carolina.  Huckabee led McCain by nearly 4% in pre-Michigan polling there.

There was no competitive Democratic primary in Michigan.

Watch Mitt Romney's victory speech on PlayPolitical.com.

BritainAndAmerica's coverage of the Iowa and New Hampshire results.

Comments

[activist]

Sorry to hear this. Romney is a total disaster, with a pro-choice record. All the other candidates absolutely loathe him. He polls worst against any Democrat; Daily Kos was urging its supporters to go out and vote Romney in order to mess up the Republicans.

For a guy some delusional US conservatives, looking at his current words not his long record, think is a movement Conservative, Romney won in Michigan by telling a big Government lie - that he could bring back vanished auto jobs to the state, promising market interference that goes against Conservative principles. McCain told the truth and (I am surprised to see) was punished for it.

It reminds me of that excellent "primaries" West Wing episode where Vinick tells the truth to Iowans about ethanol.

McCain polled best amongst Dems, independents. In other words, Republicans, *he can win in November*!

Mitt Romney can't. A vote for Romney is a vote for Hillbama.

My ideal candidate is Thompson, but McCain is the realistic choice.

[Alan S]

Mitt Romney is so like David Cameron. Both would say anything to get elected. Neither have ever said anything unpopular to an audience. They are shallow crowdpleasers.

[Mitt and Dave are not the same]

That's not fair Alan.
There are big differences between Mitt and Dave.

Mitt did run the Winter Olympics and an American state. All Dave ever did was be Mr PR for the disaster that was ITV Digital.

[Adam in London]

Giuliani cannot be described as a 'victor' out of Michigan:

He came 5th, capturing 3% of the primary vote.

That's awful for someone who reckons they're the one who can run and win on a 50 state campaign. These poor results are hurting him. Giuliani has had Florida all to himself up til now, and it's currently a dead heat between himself, Romney, McCain and Huckabee.

[Tony Makara]

It certainly does show the value of having a clear economic strategy in place. It is one thing to analyse current economic failings and quite another thing to propose a viable solution. Economics is not John McCain's strongest card, in fact I heard Mr McCain honestly saying how he hires advisors to explain economic events to him. In my opinion any person that needs to hire economic advisors doesn't have the first-hand economic knowledge needed to be president.

The same applies here in Britain. We have already seen how Gordon Brown's politically governed ad hoc brand of economic policy has now lead us into an economic dead-end. The importance of an economic strategy should not be underestimated. It is not enough for politicians to simply manage the economy. but they must direct the economy, make it work. Romney has offered an economic vision, this gives him a big edge over McCain.

[Joe James Broughton]

America demeans itself with capital punishment - using methods which don't work.

[Tony Makara]

Joe James Broughton, I support capital punishment, however I agree that the methods used are flawed. A judicial system which leads to criminals being executed ten years after their original trial is ridiculous. Capital punishment is a tricky subject, but I feel that if we are prepared to kill in a time of warfare we shouldn't have any conscience about executing child murderers etc. I support the death penalty, but I don't like it, I'm just as squeamish about killing another human being as the next person. However I feel it is necessary as an act of justice.

[Andrew Ian Dodge]

America demeans itself with capital punishment - using methods which don't work.

So letting out mass murderers is a good thing then? Prove that capital punishment does not work? Where is the evidence?

Back to the primaries. Huckaloon is the most likely to get creamed by the Democrat machine. The loon is now proposing amending the Constitution to make it more pro-Christianity. The man is a theocratic lunatic who would drive people to the Democrats to make sure he does not get in.

Romney is a typical Mass. Republican. Most of the country would call him a R.I.N.O.. He is not the best choice but not the worst either.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Listened to an excellent interview with McCain this morning. He was philosophical in defeat and despite being given several opportunities to do so by the interviewer did not resort to spin. Whether one agrees with him on every subject he did come across as a good guy.
Romney in my opinion is a Democrat's dream. If he wins the the nomination I suggest the Republicans concede defeat the next day.
Will Guliani now stand up and start fighting? If he leaves it much longer he's dead meat.

[Matthew Robinson]

I agree with Malcolm, if Giuliani doesn't start campaigning strongly soon he's dead in the water. But since the candidates seem to be cancelling each other out and stopping any momentum being gathered it makes for an interesting contest. Giuliani's strategy is high risk but may just pay off. He must have saved a huge amount (especially compared to Romney) by practically skipping the first 3 primaries.
Thompson's hopes seem pinned on South Carolina.How long now before Ron Paul and Fred Thompson drop out of the race?

[S_baker]

You know for a people that have a common language you guys don't freakin' get it! McCain is a boob, he is not conservative. He believes in the global warming scam, he sponsored the dream act for illegals (that did it for me) he believe in shamnesty, he knows nothing about american industry. He thought cadillac was foreign, what a twit!Romney is not my perfect candidate, but he is good enough in all areas for me to vote for him (I did last night) and I think he has a lot of appeal. You think he is the Dumbocrats best hope? Listen, if Billary or Barack, I am not a Muslim Obama think he is a light weight, remember he won in a very liberal state and he idn't go native. I think that is quite an accomplishment. I think most of you are anti-mormon and are too polite to admit it. However your country is turning MUSLIM and you are falling all overyouselves to appease them. I guess once last century wasn't enough for you! GO MITT GO!

[Adam in London]

I can't see Giuliani's strategy paying off at all. Talk is already firing up about a brokered GOP convention. If I were a Republican in Florida I'd be terrified of voting for Giuliani as it would make such a nightmare outcome much more likely. I'd want to start to narrow the field.

As for Ron Paul and Fred Thompson, the prospect of a brokered convention means they have an incentive to stay in the race as long as possible - they could become the kingmakers of the GOP (after extracting their pound of flesh of course).

[Joe James Broughton]

"So letting out mass murderers is a good thing then? Prove that capital punishment does not work? Where is the evidence?"

Where did I say we should do that?

You need to prove that it does work. The crime rate in the US suggests it does not.

It is demeaning to a nation for the state to take people's lives unless it is essential (war).

[Andy Stidwill]

The problem is that if 70% of people in America support capital punishment, then how can you - in a democracy - say that the minority view should prevail? That sounds like believing that a few select people know better than the majority.

[jdun]

Capital Punishment does work because they are dead. The USA don't let people out of a crime likely. If you committed a crime the punishment will fit the misconduct. If you murder a person you can expect the lawyers and the victim family pushing the death penalty. If you don't want to go to jail or in death roll its best you stay out of trouble.

People shouldn't read that much into the Northern States primary. Fred Thompson is a very strong contender and have the support of the Conservative South. His time will come in South Carolina. If he won SC don't be surprise that he get the Republican nomination when the day is over.

If Mitt gets the Republican nomination expect to see a Democrat in the White House next year but I doubt that would happen.

[Joe James Broughton]

I disagree with Andy Stidwill. In Britain it is a Parliamentary democracy which weighs these matters up for us - not take the result from Sun phone ins.
As for this motley crew of Republican candidates - probably McCain and Guilliani are the best - it doesn't look like they'll get it, so we'll probably see one of the others beaten by Obama. But it could all change.

[Texas_Blueblood]

I honestly don't think any of these Republican candidates receive particularly passionate support. The South, Southwest and Mid-west will cast their delegates' votes for the Republican party no matter what. The West and New England will cast their delegates' votes for the Democratic party no matter what. The thing we need to be looking at now is who will be acceptable to the swing states.

I personally like Huckabee, but I'm well aware that he'll get murdered if we put him up against the Dems. So I'm trying to be realistic about who has the best chance of beating the Dems. I think only Guiliani has a chance of getting into the White House because he isn't a real Conservative. If we pick someone who is too right-wing, he will get creamed and we will soon be the world's largest welfare state. Sometimes you have to go for the realistic option rather than what you'd like to do in a perfect world.

Let's get any Republican (other than Ron Paul) in the White House!

[Frogg, USA]

There are some who say that you can tell who the best conservative candidates are by how hard the MSM and Democrats attack them. That would be Romney, Thompson, Giuliani in this race.

btw- Romney has currently won two states, placed second in the other two, has the most delegates, and so far has received the most total votes. Besides that, he receives most of the conservative votes, as well as an impressive number of the independent and evangelical votes in all races so far. I don't know why some of you diss him so easily.

If you have heard him in the debates it is easy to see him easily putting Hillary or Obama in thier place when the battle of ideas begins.

Republicans don't seem to want to let go of any of the front runners, who separately represent one of the Reagan coalition aspects (social, fiscal, and national security).

Could this lead to a brokered convention? Possibly. But, I'd let it play out before jumping to any conclusions. And, a brokered convention could do more good than bad in the long run to unite Republicans to nominate a consensus candidate everyone can rally behind.

Afterall, it was a brokered convention that led to an Abraham Lincoln presidency in 1860. Lincoln didn't even have the most delegates at the first count. He was, however, a favorite second choice candidate. We could do worse.