All you need to know: Reflections on Super Duper Tuesday

DEMOCRAT RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Hillary Clinton did better than her team had begun to fear.  Some of the polls giving, for example, Barack Obama's big leads in California were way out wrong.  Senator Clinton's victory in California was a particular relief and her win in Massachusetts a delicious victory over Kennedy and Kerry - who couldn't even deliver their home state to Obama.  There's a great quote in the Boston Globe on why Clinton prevailed in Ma: "The workhorses beat the show horses. Clinton won.  In fact, that's probably an accurate description of the national Clinton/Obama battle, too."

The overall delegates count is close, however with Clinton leading Obama by just 900 to 824.  Obama claims he won more delegates last night.  Only a fool would predict who will eventually win this race.  Rasmussen markets has Obama with a 49% chance of winning his party's nomination and Hillary Clinton a 51% chance.  (The same source gives McCain a 93% chance of securing the GOP nod).

HOW LONG WILL THE DEMOCRAT RACE GO ON FOR?

All the way to the Convention is a real possibility.  Who will that favour?  It will favour the Democrats if they win 75% of media coverage from now until then but the GOP could start benefiting if it starts getting ugly again between the two Senators.  At the moment, says Washington Wire, the two parties are sharing media attention: "Overall Democrats were the focus of 46% of the election stories last week, while Republicans were close behind at 42%."

OBAMA DOES HAVE GEOGRAPHIC REACH

Last night's wins for Obama in GOP states like Kansas, Idaho, Utah and North Dakota, in the bellwether state of Missouri and last week's South Carolina primary underline his credentials as a candidate able to compete across the whole nation.

"SUICIDE VOTERS" ENTERS THE POLITICAL LEXICON

John Derbyshire notes its arrival: "I have just logged (here) a third occurrence, in about 24 hours, of the phrase "suicide voters" — i.e. people who will vote Democrat in November to prevent a McCain presidency.  It's not an original idea, of course, but I don't recall it from previous campaigns. It's not very tasteful, either; but in the age of South Park Conservatism, that probably won't stop its spread, if it's going to spread."

LAST NIGHT'S VICTORY SPEECH FROM JOHN McCAIN WASN'T TO THE WHOLE NATION BUT TO CONSERVATIVE AMERICANS

“I am a Republican because, like you, I want to relieve the American people of the heavy hand of a government,” he said. “I am a Republican because, like you, I believe government must defend our nation’s security wisely and effectively…I am a Republican because I believe, like you, that government should tax us no more than necessary, spend no more than necessary… I am a Republican because I believe the judges we appoint to the federal bench must understand that enforcing our laws, not making them, is their only responsibility…”  Byron York at National Review has more.

HUCKABEE MAY BE HURTING McCAIN MORE THAN ROMNEY?

Some things get repeated often enough that they become conventional wisdom.  That doesn't mean that they're true.  Exit polling data casts doubt on the now popular theory that Huckabee is hurting Romney.  Here's Gallup Guru's view: "McCain wins over Romney as the second choice of Huckabee voters by more than a 2 to 1 margin, 64% to 28%.  Indeed, McCain beats Romney 42% to 24% with Huckabee in the race (Huckabee gets 18% of the vote, Ron Paul gets 5%, and Alan Keyes gets 2%).  With a narrowed-down ballot focused just on McCain and Romney (forcing Huckabee voters to choose between the two front-runners), McCain wins 53% to 30% -- a slightly expanded margin."  Gallup Guru is a great site btw.

AND FINALLY...

Toby Harnden reports that Barack Obama's daughters aren't that keen on a move to Washington DC but the Illinois Senator has promised to buy them a dog if his presidential bid is successful.

Comments

[Malcolm Dunn]

As you say a very bad night for certain pollsters. I'd always been told that American polling orginations were the best in the world which is why TV stations can 'call' elections before the votes are physically counted. I wonder if the that will happen in November?

[Tony Makara]

When I got up at six o'clock and put on the BBC news the first impression I got was that Obama had swept the board because the reporting was so pro-Obama, typical PC-BBC. The more I hear McCain the more he seems to be playing 'Reagan the man' with his self-effacing style, however McCain will have to come a long way to match Reagan on radical supply-side politics. This contest is certainly getting interesting, if McCain gets the nod as seems likely it might be tactically wise to chose a young running mate because the Democrats are going to look very energetic whatever their ticket.

[Sally Roberts]

I hope the young Misses Obama have decided what kind of dog they want!

[Simon Marshall]

Can't understand why the young misses Obama want Wendy Alexander

[Moral minority]

Alan Keyes is not running and gets 2% in the polls - weird!

[Jake]

And the momentum builds...

http://acropolisreview.com/2008/02/endorsements-of-barack-obama.html

[milica]

Do we think about what is really done to improve the situation in those places by the organizations that are founded to interfere where it is needed and secure the lives of innocent people? Do we engage in dialogues only when we are the ones being endangered, or do we have a conscience that says that this world is a home to us all, and every nation suffering should be given a helping hand? We should understand that if some conflicts do not effect us directly, indirectly we are all effected as a species that seems to work hard against its own survival. I found some very interesting thoughts on this subject in the book called The Age of Nepotism, you should look it up and read about current affairs in the world from the perspective of Iranian American entrepreneur traveling through the Balkans. There is also a site www.theageofnepotism.com

[anti snore]

The more I hear McCain the more he seems to be playing 'Reagan the man' with his self-effacing style, however McCain will have to come a long way to match Reagan on radical supply-side politics.Thanks for the very useful blog post here.