Britain and America

George W Bush salutes Tony Blair on his final day as Prime Minister

Tony Blair ceases to be Prime Minister today and his last 24 hours in power have had a decidely American feel to them.  He met Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in Downing Street yesterday to discuss climate change issues and there is much talk of him spending much of his 'retirement' on the US lecture circuit.  He is expected to command a fee of $150,000 per appearance and will probably speak at least once or twice a month in the USA over the next year.  He leaves Downing Street heavily in debt and with mortgages for five properties.

The clipping above is from the front page of The Times.  The Times also reports that Tony Blair is likely to be The Quartet Powers' Special Envoy to the Middle East.

George W Bush's tribute to Tony Blair appears on the front page of The Sun, Britain's best-selling newspaper.  The Sun publishes a sixteen page tribute to the outgoing Prime Minister.  Bill Gates, Bill Clinton, Bono and Governor Schwarzenegger are amongst the contributors.  Here are some key extracts from the President's interview-based article for The Sun:

"We've served together during a time of war, and shared the same determination to succeed.  We analysed the enemy the same way, and found each other in the same foxhole.  I admire somebody who sees over the horizon.  In this job, and in his job, you've got to see beyond the immediate if you intend to lay a foundation for peace.  Tony and I have had great and long discussions about the threats the civilised world faces.  He fully understands the nature of the enemy.  He sees this as an ideological struggle, and he knows that those of us blessed by the ideology of liberty, that has led to great comfort for our respective peoples, must help others realise the benefits of that."

"This is the beginning of a long ideological struggle, where Tony Blair and I are writing the first chapters of the war, probably the dominant war of the 21st Century."
 
"Tony's great skill, and I wish I had it, is that he's very articulate.  I wish I was a better speaker.  This guy can really talk!"

“Tony’s had a great run and history will judge him kindly. He’s a very talented man, for whom I’ve got a great deal of respect. I selfishly said to him, ‘I hope you can stay out my term!’  But Tony has been very gracious about Gordon Brown to me.  Gordon came here and he wasn’t the image of the dour Scotsman at all! He was relaxed. It was a good meeting.”

Mr Blair may have a friend and admirer in President Bush but the final opinion poll of his era suggests that only 14% of voters want the next generation of British politicians to embrace Blairism.

Related link: What will Brown mean for the special relationship?

1pm update: Fast record of Tony Blair's final PMQs

Lessons from the Big Apple and the Golden State

Andrew Burkinshaw writes:

In an excellent article in this week's Time Michael Grunwald profiles Michael Bloomberg and Arnold Schwarzenegger and looks at their careers and achievements in public office.

Both men are self-made; their hard work and determination making them rich and famous in their sector (Bloomberg) or just plain famous (Schwarzenegger). They are both Republicans whose socially liberal positions have enabled their election in Democratic strongholds. And they are both prepared to take action where they believe the federal government in Washington has failed to do so.

Take climate change. In New York Bloomberg is calling for a 30% cut in greenhouse gases by 2030 and in California Schwarzenegger has signed a cap on greenhouses gases, the first in the country. Or affordable housing, where Bloomberg has used $7.5 billion of private money to build 165,000 affordable homes. Or stem cell research, where Schwarzenegger has endlessly promoted his state's medical-research industry.

Historically many national policy solutions have come from state or city level but this process has been accelerated by the Bush White House's necessary focus on the war on terror and homeland security since 9/11. Both Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger, despite initial unpopularity (both saw their ratings drop in their first terms) have used their subsequent popularity to pursue bold measures - as Bloomberg has said "What good is a 70% approval rating if we don't take risks?".

They have also eschewed the partisan nature of Washington, working across party lines (often through necessity) to get things done. Schwarzenegger worked with his Democratic legislature to get his climate change measures through and Bloomberg formed Mayors Against Illegal Guns recruiting more than 220 mayors to lobby Congress to allow officials to share gun-trace information.

The non-partisan nature of measures like these, and of Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger, do not make them popular with the Republican base but is perhaps the reason they have both been touted for national office (in Schwarzenegger's case if the constitution is changed)!

California's eager-to-please Governor

All over the USA Republicans were losing on 7th November... except in California where Arnold Schwarzenegger - and other GOP candidates riding on the Governator's coat-tails - swept to victory.  Republican strategists need to ask if the former actor's 17% victory was unique to California and its more left-liberal politics or should the GOP be learning from the "pro-environment, pro-business, fiscally conservative and socially moderate" agenda pursued by Schwarzenegger?  The Bush-bashing, tax-rising Democrat candidate won by 43% to 34% amongst California's self-described liberals but Schwarzenegger mastered a 20% lead amongst independent and moderate voters.  And these voters are the fastest-growing sector of California's electorate.  Joe Kotkin of the New America Foundation noted this in the Wall Street Journal:

"As political analysts such as New America's David Lesher have pointed out, the "not party" now constitutes California's ascendant political grouping. Over the past decade, people registering without a major party affiliation have accounted for a remarkable 91% of all the growth in the electorate. They now constitute one in every five voters. These independents clearly have the wind to their backs, with disproportionate support among both Latino adults and young people. Indeed, nearly 40% of the state's voters under 25 have chosen to either register as "decline to state" or belong to a small party. If these trends continue, by 2025 independents could outnumber both Democrats and Republicans."

The 'Arnold Republican recipe' may be more relevant to the rest of America than some Republicans think.  Across America - although there were many more self-described conservatives than liberals - 47% of November 7th's voters described themselves as moderates and they largely voted for the Democrats.  Orthodox Republicans still find the Governor's outreach to moderates infuriating, however.  Chris Weinkopf has thrown the Governor's own 2004 attack line back at him in the National Review:

"Behold the new Arnold, a man bearing little resemblance to the revolutionary who toppled Gov. Gray Davis just three years ago. He’s politically compliant, eager to please, and anxious to avoid a fight. One might say . . . a girlie man."

Schwarzenegger - interviewed on yesterday's Meet The Press by Tim Russert - embraced this idea of him being a eager-to-please, avoid-a-fight Republican, however.  He said that he had simply done the people's work in a bipartisan way.  After being spanked last year by the electorate for pursuing a series of conservative ballot measures, the Governor reversed dismal approval ratings by closely studying opinion across the state and doing as the voters wanted.  He told Russert:

"I’m eager to please the voters because I’m a public servant. I don’t see myself as a politician. I see myself as a public servant. I serve the people of California. I serve Democrats and Republicans, and if someone says that, that I’m eager to please, yes, I am. I’m there to please the people.  That’s what this is all about."