A few months ago it looked like Hillary Clinton had the Democratic race sown up. All of the uncertainty was on the GOP side. Times have changed. McCain is now the overwhelming favourite for the GOP nomination - leading in all five recent Super Duper Tuesday polls - and Obama is gaining on Mrs Clinton. The extent of Obama's momentum is discussed by Dick Morris in a special post for Rasmussen polling. Most notable is a reduction in Clinton's California advantage to just 3% from 20% a few weeks ago. The overall national lead for the former First Lady in the RCP moving average is 8.5%; although the most recent poll - for Gallup - put Obama just 4% behind.
...AND HE HAS THE MONEY TO DRAW CLOSER
Obama has the money to contest every Super Tuesday state. He raised $1m every day in January and is planning a $10m spending campaign over the next few days.
Ads cannot compensate for an inadequate campaign, however. Romney spent more money (much of it his own) than all of the other GOP candidates combined.
One of the other big differences between the GOP and Democrat contests is that the GOP is running a number of winner-takes-all votes. Second-placed Democrats, notes The Economist, still get delegates in key states which reduces the chance of a Super Tuesday wipeout.
THE IRAQ FACTOR
John O'Sullivan worries that Iraq - although better - will still hurt the Republicans:
"Whether we like it or not, Democrats are closer to the majority view on Iraq. The success of the surge has reduced the salience of Iraq as an issue damaging the GOP but that has not made it an issue that wins votes for the GOP. So it did no damage for Hillary and Obama to discuss it endlessly and their disagreement—who is most reliably determined to leave — will not anger their supporters or most uncommitted voters."
BEST JOKE OF THE DAY
From Hillary Clinton during the Democrats' debate: "It did take a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush." Okay; it wasn't that funny.
You may have answered the question about whether Obama has enough time to overhaul Clinton with your comment about Democrat contests typically NOT being winner takes all.
Even if each Super Tuesday contest is narrowly for Clinton, then surely Obama still has time and, more crucially, momentum to do it.
Posted by: Adrian Owens | February 01, 2008 at 03:53 PM
After watching the juvenile Obama turn his back and decline shaking hands with Hillary at the State of the Union Address it becam obviuos to me that Obama lacks the maturity and statesmanship qualities to be the president. This on top of only being a first time seantor who hardly makes it to session and most often voted present instead of yeah or nay. No way is he near ready enough to lead THIS country never mind a small town. Where was HIS military service? The fact that GW Bush was ONLY a reserve and for a litied time was a huge issue, now it's all right for the Commander In Chief to have never ev en led a boy scout troop ?
Posted by: Max | February 01, 2008 at 08:04 PM
Obama is a complete fraud - and yet the media in the western world is eating out of his hands. How pathetic it is that the media is amongst the biggest voices demanding substance in politics over style yet at the very same time, these cretins proclaim the second coming. (of JFK that is).
He's young, he's handsome, he's got charisma......have they forgotten Blair already?.......oh and he's black.
If he were to win, speaking as somebody always prepared to stick up for America, I might well have to declare the majority of their electorate idiots.
Just remind yourself, this liberal abortionist, amnesy loving pacifict is very happy to sit down and chat with the despicable islamo nazi Iranian regime, yet he couldn't even sit down and debate on Fox News.
Posted by: rightsideforum | February 02, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Obama is power hungry. Very power hungry. These people should not be elected to the highest office.
Posted by: jdun | February 02, 2008 at 01:54 AM
I think its a sad state of affairs when this country has gotten to the point of electing a president like we would our favorite rock star. What credentials does Obama really have. He has a outgoing personality, handsome, black, intelligent. But he hasn't even served 4 years in the Senate and has a terrible voting record during his short time there. What qualifies him to take on all the serious issues that face this country. I am embarrassed to think we would think he could take care of all the important issues that face our country today. I think its time the media stays out of electing presidents. They pushed Bush in the last election and we have experienced how qualified he was, and now we are about to make the same mistake again. The only difference is that we will be starting at a new low, when Bush took over he started at a new high after Clinton's term. What will this country look like if we elect a new president who leadership qualilties are as shallow as Obama's. Its time the American people wake up and realize what the news media is trying to sell. We need maturity, not another kid making decisions in the White House.
Posted by: Mae Skalicky | February 02, 2008 at 05:22 PM
'Obama is power hungry.Very power hungry. These people should not be elected to the highest office'-jdun. I suppose Clinton, McCain & Romney are only campaigning so hard because it's fun!!!
Posted by: Malcolm Dunn | February 03, 2008 at 09:53 AM
Barack is a racist who happens to be black!
Posted by: S_baker | February 04, 2008 at 07:05 PM
Democrats always choose their candidate by whomever they fall in love with. Its been that way as long as I can remember. Dems fall in love before the candidate proves themselves. Repubs fall in love after the candidate proves themselves. Ron R. for example.
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